Category Archives: Politics

Political polls, like economic forecasts, can vary greatly depending on assumptions

Predicting economic growth and the outcome of elections have something in common: Both rely on assumptions. We economists make assumptions about when and by how much the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates or whether the coronavirus will lead to … Continue reading

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Will Virginia’s Presidential Vote be Cast by New York and California?

Will Virginia’s new Democratic majority in the General Assembly help kill the Electoral College? Millions who slept through government class were stunned to learn in 2016 that the popular vote doesn’t pick a president. It had also happened in 2000, … Continue reading

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Demography is Destiny

“Demography is Destiny.” It was a phrase first popularized in the 1970 bestselling book The Real Majority by Democrats Richard Scammon and Ben Wattenberg in which they argued that the Democratic Party was veering leftward (particularly on social issues and … Continue reading

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The Message is the Game

You know Virginia has changed when being labeled a socialist by your opponent is less damaging than being labeled a Republican. Republican candidates all across the commonwealth sought to link their opponents with the national Democrats running for president on … Continue reading

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Republicans Must Find a New Way Forward

Virginia is a blue state now. Not only do Democrats occupy all statewide elected positions — two U.S. senators, governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general — with yesterday’s election, they control both houses of the General Assembly. Republicans got their … Continue reading

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