The Energy Debate Cloaked in Many Colors

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One of the most instructive Old Testament stories recounts the wisdom of Joseph in Egypt, after his interpretation of Pharaoh’s dreams, predicting years of drought and famine. Around 1490 BC, Joseph was made Regent (chief administrator) and ordered grain stored for the coming seven-year drought. He thus turned a bountiful harvest that might otherwise have been squandered all at once into moderate consumption that ultimately saved millions. Egypt not only survived, but had enough grain to supply the entire drought-stricken region.
What if, rather than reducing use of that resource to subsistence levels, Joseph had ordered a complete ban on eating for all but a chosen few? He could have said, “Because there will be drought and famine later, most people must starve to death now, so a few of us can live well,” but he would have been run out of office. Instead, he struck a delicate balance between wise use of resources for that time, and conserving for the future. We could use such wisdom in today’s continual debate about our use of natural resources, especially energy.
Activists now try to convince us to stop using our energy resources, in effect starving part of the world, while the rich get all they want. Nobody has yet appointed them regents to rule over us, but their influence is growing.
The latest effort to stop all use of oil and gas – the “Leave it in the Ground” movement – was started by a handful of wealthy activists, and its media visibility has grown steadily. That is partly because high-profile names are associated with it. They include actors like Susan Sarandon, Ed Norton, and Mark Ruffalo, along with global environmental industry groups (Greenpeace, Friends of the Earth, Wild Earth Guardians, etc.), and the foundations that fund them. Media attention also stems from these groups’ prominent involvement at the Paris climate conference, but mostly, it comes from over-the-top rhetoric. It is not intended to slow down our use of energy, or moderate our consumption, but stop it altogether.
The movement’s mission, articulated in an open letter to world leaders, says “The first step in this effort is a simple one: Stop digging. No additional fossil fuel development, no exploration for new fossil fuels, no expansion of fossil fuel projects. We need to keep fossil fuels in the ground.” No exceptions are imagined for poor countries desperate for the mobility, plentiful food supply, heated homes, and quality of life made possible here by abundant and affordable energy. These comforts are already enjoyed by the elite members of this movement, just as the Pharaoh and Egypt’s elite already had all they needed.
The hypocrisy of people who want to get all they can, then close the door behind them, is palpable. Unfortunately, that attitude pervades much of our ongoing debate about natural resources.
Perhaps the greatest irony about the “Keep it in the Ground” movement is that it would deny further use of the very resource that is improving our world at an unprecedented rate. Consider the progress the U.S. has made in reducing air pollution.
EPA data show that carbon dioxide emissions declined 13 percent since 2005, and overall greenhouse gas emissions are at the lowest levels in 26 years. Emissions of the three most damaging air pollutants – sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide and particulates – also declined precipitously. According to a recent column in The Hill, “Numerous reputable third party experts, including the International Energy Agency, U.S. Energy Information Administration, and even the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, agree that increased use of clean burning natural gas deserves the bulk of the credit for America’s declining emissions.”
In fact, the U.S. has led the world in carbon reductions ever since global warming became an issue. A 2017 Energy Department report said switching to natural gas (from coal) prevented over 2 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide from being emitted since 2005. It also said the share of carbon reductions in the power sector attributable to natural gas is 72 percent greater than renewables. It concluded that “The U.S. power sector has led the world in cutting CO2 emissions since 2008, thanks largely to natural gas…”
Clearly our abundant supply of natural gas is helping improve our world. That doesn’t mean we should rush out and use all that energy right away. We should always be careful to use resources wisely and conservatively. But wise use is different than no use. Surely 3500 years of human history since Joseph saved Egypt have taught us that.


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Tax Conformity Addendum: Has Virginia Already Conformed?

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During a discussion today about the issue of whether and how Virginia should amend its taxes in response to recent federal changes, the question came up: just what is the situation today? I was reminded that the conformity bill that originally passed in the 2018 General Assembly was subsequently amended at the request of the Governor with very little fanfare. Has Virginia actually conformed?
Here is the language now in the Code of Virginia.
The original introduced bill set a conformity date of December 1, 2017, well before Congress acted. The bill that then passed the House and Senate set the date at December 31, after the new federal law was signed, but included language that limited conformity only to the new federal provisions that had an impact on 2017 taxes (see paragraph 6c.) The Governor’s Amendment advanced that conformity date to February 9, 2018 – but did not change the language that prevented conformity from just about every provision that applies to tax year 2018. So as I read the bill, Virginia still has not conformed to the “Tax and Job Cuts Act.”
The official summary for the bill on the legislative website, which was written after the Governor’s Amendment, seems to agree: “The bill conforms only to certain provisions of Public Law 115-97, known as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, that affect taxable years prior to 2018.” (Emphasis added). That leaves Virginia’s posture toward all of the new rules and definitions for 2018 and beyond still to be determined.
Virginia has already lost its purity as a conformity state with all the exceptions in the Code. I still expect a strong inclination on the part of many of Virginia’s elected leaders to keep all the new revenue produced for the state, thus offsetting some of the federal tax cuts, and to consider selective de-conformity as a method to add to that revenue.
(This article first ran in Bacons Rebellion on June 21, 2018)


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Smithfield getting beat up in costly court cases

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Late last Friday, a North Carolina jury again ruled against Smithfield Foods in a nuisance lawsuit. The jury awarded a couple who live over 1/4 mile from the concentrated animal feeding operation (CAFO) $25 million for flies, odor and large tractor trailers going by their property. The jury deliberated for three days according to sources. Sources say this was Smithfield’s best case, and the farm itself was owned by a former local police chief.
Smithfield, a meat-processing company and wholly owned subsidiary of WH Group of China, is starting to look like an easy mark.Over 500 residents have filed 25 lawsuits against Smithfield Foods; this was the second case tried, and the second loss in court.
The legal argument used by plaintiffs is that concentrated hog operations are a nuisance. North Carolina’s Pork Council issued a statement Friday evening stating “It is heartbreaking because the jury did not hear the full story about Joey Carter’s farm and now an honest, hardworking farmer stands to lose everything.”
Plaintiffs are claiming that Smithfield must replace lagoons at each hog production facility and stop spraying the lagoons’ water and residue onto fields.
According to reports of those attending the trial, it appears the judge would not allow testimony from an odor expert. Such testimony, I have found, is absolutely critical in proving that odors from any CAFO do not travel far. Evidence I have introduced shows frequently that hog odors travel less than 1/4 mile before they dissipate to levels not detected by humans.
One source reporting on the trial suggested the jury did not hear all of the necessary evidence about Defendant’s farm and its surroundings. Another charge made about the trial is the judge declined to allow the jury to travel and visit defendant’s farm.
Such a visit is purely discretionary by the Court under the rules of trial procedure but those writing about the actual trial claimed as most of us know in animal production you can walk up to most CAFOs and experience little or no odor.
The North Carolina Pork Council reported daily on activities occurring at the trial. One fact stands out as puzzling. The plaintiffs’ lawyer apparently said the plaintiff had lived by the defendant’s hog farm before the farm was built. Apparently that was a falsehood. The facts are the hog farm was there first, and the plaintiffs moved in after the defendant had built and operated the farm for several years.
It is puzzling and defies the law and facts as to how these cases are tried. I have not seen nor read a case where the farmer loses when a city person moves to the bucolic countryside and claims the farmer is creating a nuisance. 
Nuisance law is often called “the black hole of law”. Nuisance is a legal action that seeks to address a harm arising from the use of one’s property. A private nuisance basically is addressing one person’s interference with another person’s enjoyment and use of his land. The law recognizes that land or home owners in possession of their land or home have a right to the unimpaired condition of the property and to reasonable comfort and convenience as they live on their property.
There are thousands of cases where one party complains against another party about the comfort of their home and situation being harmed by foul odors, noxious odors, smoke, dust, loud noises, excessive light or high temperatures. A nuisance can be something which disturbs the homeowner’s mental tranquility, such as a neighbor who has a dog that barks constantly. Such a private nuisance can be a farm, and that is why every state has passed a “Right to Farm” statute to protect tillage and animal agriculture.
Usually, in nuisance cases where the Right to Farm statute has not been accepted by the court, as in this case (which I think is wrong), the court looks at two factors to determine if the defendant has created a private nuisance. The defendant’s fault will be examined to see if there is 1) substantial interference caused by the defendant and 2) the reasonableness of the farmer’s or defendant’s conduct.
For some reason the court and the jurors determined that raising hogs in North Carolina, at least, is a private nuisance. Again, without the protection of a “Right to Farm” statute to protect his livelihood, a farmer can and will be destroyed.
(This article first ran in the July 3, 2018 edition of Farm Futures.)
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Strong Growth for Express Toll Lanes and Networks

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USA Today published a major story on the growth of express toll lanes across the country. Reporter Bart Jansen included a table of 40 projects then in operation, with 13 in Texas, 9 in California, and mostly 1s, 2s, or 3s in the other nine states. But Jansen’s total is already out of date, as new projects reach completion and open to traffic. Florida has opened two more ETLs since then (on I-75 near Ft. Lauderdale and on the Veterans Expressway near Tampa). Several projects in other states are nearing completion for opening this year. These include the latest stretch of North Tarrant Express in Fort. Worth (opened in April), the first ETLs in Jacksonville, FL (on I-295, to open by the end of summer), and the extension of Atlanta’s I-85 ETLs (also this summer).
Ground-breaking for one of the largest investor-financed ETL projects to date took place in Virginia on June 28th. The project will result in two ETLs each way on I-66 outside the Beltway, in a $3.6 billion project led by Cintra, which developed the LBJ and NTE projects in Dallas and Fort Worth, respectively.
The largest set of new ETLs is moving forward in Maryland, as previously reported in this newsletter. One major project (or, more likely, set of projects) will add two ETLs each way on Maryland’s half of the Capital Beltway (I-495) and on I-270, adding to the emerging network of such lanes in the greater Washington, DC metro area. In addition, Maryland DOT has opened discussions with the National Park Service, which owns the Baltimore-Washington Parkway between the two cities. Gov. Larry Hogan’s ETL plan includes adding priced lanes to that facility, as well. Meanwhile, on the other side of the Potomac, Virginia DOT is studying a proposal to extend the existing I-495 ETLs to the American Legion Bridge, to provide a seamless connection to the future Maryland ETLs. The idea of a Metro Washington Express Lanes Network got a significant boost, via a mid-May report from the Greater Washington Partnership endorsing the concept as vital for reducing the region’s severe traffic congestion.
Chicago is likely to be the next major metro area to embark on an ETL network. The 2040 long-range transportation plan released early this month by the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning (CMAP) calls for adding ETLs to I-55 and several stretches of I-80, in addition to new toll roads and possible dedicated truck lanes on some corridors. Illinois DOT already plans to reconstruct and widen Chicago’s Eisenhower Expressway (I-290) with the addition of ETLs as part of the project. One or both of the I-55 and I-290 projects could be procured as toll concessions, if the Legislature gives its permission.
Another major project is in the planning stages by Washington State DOT. It would combine and expand the ETLs on the northern portion of I-405 and the HOT lanes on SR 167 to the south into a single 40-mile ETL corridor. For the first time in this state, the project might be financed by issuing bonds backed by tolls and state funds, according to a Seattle Times article by transportation reporter Mike Lindblom (July 2nd). The project would also remove a bottleneck in the northern part of I-405 where ETLs are reduced from two to one each direction. (Disclosure: this combined project was one of the recommendations of the WSDOT I-405 Expert Review Panel on which I served in 2010.)
Among other ETL projects moving closer to implementation are the following:

  • Adding ETLs to a 17-mile gap of insufficient lanes on I-25 south of Denver, for which CDOT last month received an INFRA grant from FHWA;
  • Adding two ETLs each way on I-95 in Jacksonville, FL;
  • Adding ETLs to 16 miles of Georgia 400 in Atlanta, for cars and BRT;
  • Adding one ETL each way to 17 miles of I-485 in Charlotte, expected to start construction next year; and
  • Adding one ETL each way to US 101 from Redwood City to San Bruno south of San Francisco. This is another segment in the emerging ETL network in the Bay Area.

As I wrote in my June column in Public Works Financing, increasingly these “managed lanes” are being developed as if they were business enterprises, with a growing proportion of them being financed by expected toll revenues. You can read this column online, if you are interested: https://reason.org/commentary/viewing-managed-lanes-as-a-business.
(This article first ran in the July issue of Surface Transportation Innovations)
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Are Academic Course Requirements Out-of-Date?

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When I was much younger and learning to cook, I wanted to fix a ham in the pan that my mother gave to me. She always made the best hams.
So I proceeded to cut both ends off the ham, prepare it with her special spices and put it into the oven. I wondered to myself, “Why am I cutting off both ends? Mom always did.”
So I asked my mom about it. Her answer was, “Mom always made it that way.”
So I called up my grandmother and asked this question of her. Her answer upended my thinking. She said, “The ham was too big for the pan.”
I wonder if the same is true for calculus. Do we take calculus in high school because we need this skill in our future career, or is it what we historically needed to get into prestigious colleges?
Last week, I spoke to a group of about 130 business people and educators. I asked, “How many of you took calculus in school?” About 90 percent raised their hand. And “how many of you use calculus in your job today?” I didn’t see any hands raised.
Based on job postings from Chmura’s JobsEQ over the last 180 days ending with June 25, almost 6,000 job ads in the nation listed “calculus” as a preferred skill. That’s 0.03 percent of all the jobs posted during that period.
The top job posted was for agricultural engineers with 1,707 job ads. The next highest job postings were for tutors with 820 ads. Presumably, those tutors are needed to prepare high school students to pass courses needed for college.
In the Richmond metro area, there were 11 job postings that required calculus (about 0.01 percent of all openings); most were tutors.
On the other hand, it appears that statistics is not taught as often in high school or sought after by college students. Based on the 2016 National Council of Teachers of Mathematics report, students are more likely to take AP calculus tests than statistics tests in high school. But there were almost 60,000 jobs requiring statistics in the nation for the last 180 days ending with June 25. That’s about 0.3 percent of the job openings over the same period.
The job ads covered a number of occupations. There were 4,431 jobs ads in the nation for management analysts that included the need for statistics. It was followed by 3,950 openings for computer and information research scientists with statistics skills and 2,916 business intelligence analysts.
In the Richmond metro area, 464 job ads required statistics — about 0.4 percent of total openings.
Based on our insights on calculus and statistics, the latter appears to be the skill most in demand by employers today.
Sometimes we just need to ask “Why?”
(This column first ran in the Richmond Times Dispatch on July 2, 2018)
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