Destroying the Commonwealth in Order to Save it

Posted on June 27, 2023 by Barbara Hollingsworth
Share this article on:

Members of the General Assembly who voted for a  bill in 2021 mandating that new vehicles sold in Virginia must be all-electric by 2035 forgot to do the math to show exactly how that would work in real life.

As the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy noted in February when we unsuccessfully made the case for repeal of this ill-advised legislation, the commonwealth simply does not have the technological capacity to make such a massive switch from internal combustion engines in such a short period of time.

Replacing the energy stored in one pound of oil takes 15 pounds of lithium battery.  To mine the materials found in the typical 1,000 car battery will mean mining and processing about 250 tons of rock and dirt.

Nobody told Virginians that the level of subsurface mining required to manufacture the millions of new batteries required to store electricity generated by wind, solar and other “renewable” energy sources will dwarf current production levels, scarring the earth.

Consider our planet — including Virginia, which has deposits of copper, manganese and zinc — pockmarked with ten times the number of current mines, resembling craters on the moon. This in a state that won’t even allow an underground natural gas pipeline to be built.

Turns out, going all-electric will require an astonishingly high amount of digging, according to Dr. Simon Michaux, University of Queensland Associate Professor of Mineral Processing and Geometalurgy.  He is apparently one of the only people in the world to actually do the calculations.

In an August 2022 seminar available on YouTube, Prof. Michaux explained that a 1,000-page study he did for the Geological Survey of Finland stated that “the quantity of metal required to make just one generation of tech units to replace fossil fuels is much larger than first thought. Current mining production of these metals is not even close to meeting demand. Current reported mineral reserves are also not enough in size. Exploration for more at required volumes will be difficult.”

“There was no long-range planning at all,” Michaux noted. “The European Commission, bless their cotton socks, would actually make a prediction like they wanted a 100 percent system replacement by 2030 …It’s not going to happen.”

That’s because in the headlong rush to completely phase out fossil fuels, no one bothered to answer one basic question: “What quantity of minerals will be needed to do this?” Especially since as recently as 2018, “84.5 percent of global primary energy consumption was fossil fuel based and less than one percent of the vehicle fleet was electric.”

Since there are not a sufficient number of e-vehicles to recycle needed materials such as copper, lithium, nickel, manganese, cobalt, and graphite, “the first generation will have to be sourced from mining,” he explained.

The amount of additional electricity worldwide needed to power industry and the entire transportation sector that currently runs on oil and gas comes to 36,007 trillion kilowatt hours (TWh). To generate that amount, the world would need 586,032 new non-fossil fuel power plants – or more than ten times the existing number (46,423 in 2018), which includes a four-week buffer to even out highly intermittent wind and solar power.

So imagine ten times more power plants in Virginia in addition to hundreds of new mines. And we’re still not finished.

Giant batteries will be needed to store the power to meet increased demand, such as those used in Elon Musk’s highly touted Hornsdale Power Reserve in Australia. But the “elephant in the room,” as Prof. Michaux put it, is that there would have to be 15,635,478 Hornsdale-size plants built just to store this non-fossil fuel generated power.

And some of those battery storage facilities would of necessity have to be built in Virginia. Perhaps in your county.

Even if everybody is on board with this, there are still non-negotiable physical limitations, according to Prof. Michaux. The total amount of metals needed to manufacture just the first generation of all-electric vehicles and the components of the corresponding power stations is enormous. For example, based on global metals production rates in 2019, it would take more than 9,000 years to mine enough lithium worldwide for all the lithium-ion batteries that would be needed.

Here’s the timeline for other tech metals needed to replace fossil fuel:

Copper: 189.1 years

Nickel: 400.2 years

Lithium: 9,920.7 years

Cobalt: 1,733 years

Graphite: 3,287.9 years

Silicon: 5.9 years

Vanadium: 7,101.2 years

(And we won’t even mention the rare earth metal germanium, which would take 29,113 years to produce enough for first-generation batteries at the current levels.)

Even worse, “global reserves as stated at the moment [are] less than 5 percent of what we need” to create just one generation of fossil-free infrastructure.

In practical terms, that means an explosion of exploration and mining over the next two decades to produce the same amount of metals that humans have extracted from the earth since 4,000 BC – and that’s if such large deposits can even be found, which is problematic because unlike iron ore or aluminum, rare earth metals are usually not found in bulk quantities.

“The idea that we’re going to do this in seven or eight years is very amusing,” Prof. Michaux says.

It’s also very scary. In 2035 under current law, Virginians won’t be able to buy a gas-powered car and there won’t be the quantity of minerals available to manufacture enough electric ones. Meanwhile, tens of thousands of acres of Virginia countryside will be covered by hundreds of new mines, industrial-sized solar farms, windmill arrays, and massive battery installations.

Sounds a lot like destroying the Commonwealth in order to save it.

Posted in Economy, Energy | Comments Off on Destroying the Commonwealth in Order to Save it

Virginia hits highest labor force participation rate in a decade; Unemployment Decreases

Posted on June 24, 2023 by Derrick A. Max
Share this article on:

Work isn’t just about a paycheck. At its core, work is about freedom, accomplishment, respect, human dignity, and even companionship.  Work gives purpose and is essential to a thriving community, and thriving communities are essential to a thriving state.  That is why it is not surprising to see Gov. Youngkin focus so intently on creating a job-friendly economy.  In August of last year, the Governor announced and began implementing dramatic changes in the Commonwealth’s workforce development efforts.  Friday’s employment numbers for May show that his efforts are paying off.

The May data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that Virginia is one of only eleven states reporting lower unemployment last month and one of only seventeen states showing lower unemployment over the last twelve months.  Equally as important, labor force participation rates went up — meaning people who had given up looking for work have re-entered the job market.  This is the highest rate in almost a decade.

Finally, and most impressively, over the last twelve months job growth occurred in ten of eleven industry sectors and in all ten metropolitan areas in Virginia (known as Metropolitan Statistical Areas or MSAs).  It is important to note that the Richmond MSA, which includes Petersburg, had the highest percentage gains in employment over the last year.  It would seem the Governor’s “Partnership for Petersburg,” where he has focused his administration on forty-two initiatives and public-private partnerships in this struggling community south of Richmond, is starting to show results.

The only red flags in the latest numbers are the continued increases in state government jobs and in industries dependent on the government like education.

Also, the decline in mining and logging was fairly substantial.

While the Thomas Jefferson Institute doesn’t espouse the idea that governments or Governors “create” jobs, we do believe that lower taxes, reduced regulations, and safe communities create the environment for businesses to be created and to grow.  This appears to be the Youngkin way.

With the budget still undecided, a $3 billion-plus budget surplus on the table, general revenue running well ahead of forecasts and a likely revenue-filled June yet to come — we hope the Governor can use these job numbers to convince the legislature to continue to cut taxes and regulations and to get more low tax members elected.

Posted in Government Reform | Comments Off on Virginia hits highest labor force participation rate in a decade; Unemployment Decreases

Clean Virginia’s Victory Bad News for Energy Consumers

Posted on June 22, 2023 by Stephen D. Haner
Share this article on:

Renewable energy donor Clean Virginia Fund was the biggest winner in Tuesday’s primaries, going head to head against Dominion Energy Virginia in several nomination contests and often winning.  Senior incumbent Democrats with strong Green New Deal voting records went down to defeat, because good wasn’t good enough.

Come Election Day in November, the contrast between Democrats and Republicans on Virginia’s energy future will be as stark as possible.  Quite simply, the use of natural gas within the Commonwealth is on the ballot.  Dominion’s recent announcement that it plans a new gas generation facility in Chesterfield County to bolster electricity reliability only poured fuel on the fire (pardon the pun.)

The Charlottesville based Clean Virginia, which now also engages in lobbying and intervenes in State Corporation Commission regulatory matters, is funded by Michael Bills. His wife Sonjia Smith has a similar pattern for donations, but does not give through the political action committee. So far in this election cycle, with the fall elections still to come, Clean Virginia Fund and Smith combined have donated $7.3 million, more than 99% of it to Democrats.

Dominion is not far behind at $6.9 million donated so far in this cycle, but only $3.2 million of it has been to Democrats.  Many of them lost Tuesday to opponents backed by Clean Virginia.  They included Fairfax Senator George Barker ($230,000) and Richmond’s Joe Morrissey ($140,000.)  A late donation to a House of Delegates challenger in Virginia Beach, Susan Hippen ($110,000), also apparently was in vain.

One major Democrat incumbent who lost Tuesday, Senator Chap Peterson of Fairfax, received substantial support from Clean Virginia and no funding from Dominion this cycle.   But Smith covered that bet with a $30,000 donation of her own to Petersen’s opponent, Saddam Salim, and any question who had the greener credentials was settled by $1,000 to Salim from Jane Fonda.  Smith was Salim’s biggest donor.

In a Prince William County senate district with no incumbent and little chance for a Republican, Clean Virginia and Smith donated $783,000 to winner Jennifer Carroll Foy, who had served in the House.  Dominion’s $225,000 made it the largest donor to her failed opponent, Hala Ayala, also a former House member.

The ongoing fight between Dominion and Clean Virginia is not good news for energy consumers.  Dominion and Clean Virginia are not always on opposite sides. When they do agree, consumers usually lose.

Dominion remains deeply committed to (and committed to making its ratepayers pay for) massive offshore wind installations and thousands more Virginia acres covered with solar panels.  It was a shock to the wind and solar industrial complex when Dominion changed direction in its latest integrated resource plan and called for decades of continued reliance on natural gas to back up those intermittent energy sources. But the big bucks are still going to wind and solar.

The utility and the activist group are further apart on regulatory matters, and Clean Virginia was a key player in forcing Dominion into a compromise during the 2023 session that included several pro-consumer elements.  But the biggest regulatory problem in Virginia remains the General Assembly’s demands that Virginia charge toward an energy future with absolutely no use of any fossil fuels.

Neither Clean Virginia nor Dominion would favor those decisions now being made somewhere else, outside of the General Assembly’s tight grip.  That is why both are spending millions, with millions more to come, to buy influence over the men and women who will vote in the next session in January 2024.

What issues might that General Assembly address?

Should the Green Left control at least one chamber, forget about the past efforts to:

Decouple Virginia from the California Air Resources Board’s regulations on clean cars, which will force dealers to sell more and more electric vehicles until all gasoline engines are prohibited by 2035.

Prevent Virginia’s local governments from adopting their own local prohibitions on the use of natural gas in homes and businesses.  Charlottesville and Richmond run local gas utilities, both are considering closing them, and if they are shut down gas use would also be prevented in surrounding jurisdictions tied into the same systems.

Further amend the 2020 Virginia Clean Economy Act or repeal the statutory mandates to eliminate fossil fuel use in other areas of the economy, not just the production of electricity.  Under current law agriculture and construction are in the crosshairs, too.

Should the Clean Virginia help Democrats take full control in both chambers, what is likely to happen?

That Dominion plan to keep and expand its natural gas fleet would be in jeopardy.  For the remainder of his term Governor Glenn Youngkin could probably protect it, but the next governor might not.

Instead, expect a more watertight legislative mandate and aggressive schedule to end the use of coal, natural gas and perhaps biomass to make electricity.

Localities seeking to expand their own powers to ban disfavored energy sources would have the Assembly as an ally, not a roadblock.

If still vulnerable to state meddling, both the Mountain Valley Pipeline in Western Virginia and the pending expansion of the natural gas pipelines feeding more gas into Hampton Roads would face greater pressure.

The California Air Board has gone far, far beyond trying to eliminate internal combustion engines in cars and light trucks.  If dictated by legislation, Virginia could also copy California’s efforts to force all-electric power tools, commercial trucks and even railroad locomotives.

If Youngkin overcomes the court challenge to removing Virginia from the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, and ending the carbon tax it imposes, opponents of reliable and affordable energy will pass new bills to reinstate the tax as soon as legally possible.  Again, Youngkin might be able to hold that off, but it will confront the next governor.

The Dominion versus Clean Virginia contest over the loyalty of Democrats is a fascinating cage match.  Neither is fighting for the average Virginia consumer who wants inexpensive, reliable energy from a broad variety of sources and totally independent regulation.

Steve Haner is Senior Fellow with the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy.  He may be reached at [email protected].

Posted in Government Reform | Comments Off on Clean Virginia’s Victory Bad News for Energy Consumers

Virginia Ends the Subminimum Wage; Jeopardizes Disabled Workers

Posted on June 15, 2023 by Derrick A. Max
Share this article on:
There are few issues with more economic consensus than the negative impacts of the minimum wage.  Originally designed to mimic racially discriminatory laws in other countries, the minimum wage continues to be a means of picking certain classes and geographic locations over others.  For example, the minimum wage benefits the high-cost-of-living areas in the Northeast over the lower-cost-of-living areas in the South.  It also benefits the more educated over the less educated and most troubling, the healthy over the handicapped. The fact that the minimum wage hurts the disabled is clearly seen in the Federal Government’s 14c exception to the Fair Labor Standards Act which allows employers to pay a lower wage to certain classes of workers whose productivity may be impaired by mental or physical disabilities.    While most states align their own minimum wage laws to allow this exception for workers in their state, sadly the Commonwealth of Virginia voted to end this important exception for disabled workers in Virginia. Led by Democrat Del. Patrick Hope, who represents a wealthy district in the suburbs of Washington, DC, the General Assembly voted by large margins to end the 14c provision which would have put an estimated 348 disabled workers, who were fortunate to know about and apply for this exception, out of a job.  The government planners on the left fully understand this impact and are hoping to blunt this unemployment by offering grants to employers to help them pay minimum wage to workers currently holding 14c exceptions. Governor Youngkin, to his credit, improved this legislation by grandfathering in existing disabled workers through 2030, but the Governor agreed to end the issuance of 14c exceptions for any new disabled workers seeking employment and to codify the $14 million in grant funding.  The Left gets two things it loves: a reinforcement of the minimum wage and greater dependence on government handouts. Disability advocates on the left would have you believe that the holders of the 14c exceptions are essentially being used as slave labor to greedy employers.  The truth is that most of the employees under this program are employed through contracts made with publicly run rehabilitation and employment services that not only oversee the health and safety of the disabled workers but ensure that they are trained and able to do the jobs they are assigned. As I was told by a rehabilitation coordinator in the second largest program in Virginia, most of the contracts being fulfilled by subminimum wage are contracts where the employer is willing to take a small loss with the intention of helping disabled workers who deserve an opportunity to gain skills and socialize outside of their home.  Most of these workers do gain skills and a large percentage go on to jobs that pay competitively and do not require the oversight of a rehabilitation program. While I applaud Governor Youngkin and the few legislators (like Sen. Holtzman Vogel) willing to speak in defense of these disabled workers, the right policy is to end the minimum wage.  Knowing that is unlikely, Governor Youngkin should push to expand the 14c exceptions and use the $14 million to recruit more employers and employees into this program!  Disabled workers deserve an opportunity to work, and employers deserve an opportunity to continue helping disabled workers by providing them jobs that give them dignity, community, and purpose.
Posted in Economy | Comments Off on Virginia Ends the Subminimum Wage; Jeopardizes Disabled Workers

The Washington Post Attacks the Most Successful Education Reform in History

Posted on June 12, 2023 by Derrick A. Max
Share this article on:

Over the last few years, homeschooling has grown in Virginia by almost 40 percent. In fact, homeschoolers in Virginia now account for almost 60,000 students — making homeschooling the fifth largest school district in the Commonwealth. Because homeschoolers are self-funded, this saves Virginia’s state and local governments almost $800 million per year. More importantly, homeschoolers outperform public school students in almost every measurable category. Homeschoolers score significantly higher on standardized tests, have higher college graduation rates, lower rates of depression and anxiety, and succeed at higher rates as adults.

Yet, the Washington Post reported in The Revolt of the Christian Home-Schoolers (May 30, 2023), based almost solely on one couple’s experience, as a “conscious rejection of contemporary ideas about biology, history, gender equity and the role of religion in American Government.” The article, with scant evidence, concludes that there is an “unmistakable backlash” of formerly homeschooled children denouncing homeschooling. Riddled with references to “indoctrination” and “abuse,” homeschooling is painted by the Washington Post as a fringe and dangerous educational option. These homeschoolers “could not recover or reconstruct the lost opportunities of their childhood” as “there were so many things they had not learned.”

The attack on homeschooling is not limited to the Washington Post. In the just-released Amazon Prime documentary, Shiny Happy People: Duggar Family Secrets — homeschooling is similarly painted as an ultra-right-wing movement tied to controversial and fallen religious figures from the 1980’s. Viewers come away viewing homeschooling as a teaching method that leads to closed-minded, sexually abused, and undereducated students.

There is no doubt that the experience of the Round Hill, Virginia family highlighted in the Washington Post and of the supposedly shiny happy Duggars is real, but they are clearly the exception and are not indicative of the broader homeschool community. In fact, homeschooling is growing dramatically in the non-white community, with the fastest growing segment of homeschoolers being African Americans. A quarter of homeschool families are not even religious. And, as noted above, the academic and social success of homeschooling is well researched and documented.

So why would the Washington Post devote such a large amount of ink to bashing homeschooling? Their motive, I believe, is exposed when they claim that Christian homeschoolers are behind “the nation’s culture wars, fueling attacks on public-school lessons about race and gender with politically potent language about ‘parental rights.’” Homeschoolers, more than any other group, are free from the philosophy espoused by our former Governor Terry McAuliffe that parents should not have a say in what their children are taught. I think the Post and other such publications fear the remnant of homeschoolers that fall outside the scope and reach of their own indoctrination. Parental rights are not “politically potent,” they are fundamental to a free society. Until parents are respected and heard in our public schools, homeschooling will continue to grow and homeschool students will continue to excel.

(In full disclosure, I homeschooled my four children in the same community where the couple in the Washington Post story reside. While I do not know them, and I wish them recovery from the abuse they describe, I can attest first-hand that their experience is not typical of the overwhelming success and loving parenting I witnessed in our local homeschool community)

Posted in Government Reform | Comments Off on The Washington Post Attacks the Most Successful Education Reform in History