Who Needs Congress Anyway?

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What if I were to suggest turning all of New York into a national monument? OK, maybe we would exclude the gigantic city, but the rest of that beautiful State could be our newest national monument.
You might instinctively see a couple major problems with my idea. There are other cities and towns in the State, for example, so we could exclude those. But national monuments are government property, you might argue, whereas almost all of that State is private land. It generates billions in property taxes that would be lost, since government land is not taxed. Anyway, the government would have to own it somehow before it could become a national monument, either by confiscating it or buying it. Congress would never agree to that!
But what if I could suggest a way to do it, without troubling Congress, and without the government having to pay anything?
Let’s say a partnership of Bill Gates, Warren Buffet, Mark Zuckerberg, and Michael Bloomberg secretly pooled their resources to buy all that land. Then suppose they turned around and donated it to the National Park Service, which can legally accept donated land. Then, once the land was owned by the government, the President used his power under the Antiquities Act to declare it a national monument. Done. No public process, no Congressional authorization, no appropriations, no vote by anybody anywhere.
That may sound far-fetched, and perhaps it is, but only because of the sheer size of a State. What if it were a bit smaller tract, say the Hudson River Valley, or all of the Adirondacks? If you think it is unlikely that a wealthy clique could make such a private deal with a President, to turn a large tract of private land into federal land, you would be mistaken. That is precisely how our newest National Monument was acquired, Maine’s Katahdin Woods & Waters.
Activists tried for years to make the area (87,000 acres) a national monument, but could never generate enough public support. Elected officials opposed taking all that land off the tax rolls, and Congress had little interest in adding yet another holding of the National Park Service, to be forever maintained. So, a super-wealthy person (Burt’s Bees founder Roxanne Quimby) bought it, donated to the government, and President Obama immediately designated it as a national monument, just before leaving the White House. No wonder a National Park Service website listed it among the most important “8 moments in National Park Service history.” It was an entirely new process.
It was also a very bad idea, and a dangerous precedent. It raised the central question of who should decide what private land is to be taken over by the government. To be clear, this is not the first time rich people have helped acquire land for national parks. John D. Rockefeller, Jr. helped acquire Grand Teton, for example, during the 1930s when public money was tight. But in that case, Congress was more than ready to make it a National Park and assume the permanent maintenance, and it enjoyed broad public support, along with the support of elected officials.
That is the central detail that separates several of the most recent national monuments from all the rest. Most were created by Presidents in response to local campaigns (such as John Otto’s years of work on the Colorado National Monument). It took united communities, chambers of commerce, local newspapers, service clubs, towns, counties, and congressional delegations, all trying to gain presidential recognition. That was the process, until recently.
Grand Staircase-Escalante, Bears Ears, Canyons of the Ancients, Cascade–Siskiyou, Gold Butte, Hanford Reach, and several others, created during their last weeks by Presidents Clinton and Obama, were surprise attacks. They were created over the objections of local communities, not at their request. Their purpose was to stop specific uses of public lands. That is why President Trump responded to local officials in scaling back the size of the two Utah monuments. In doing so, he and the Interior Department announced that it was the beginning of a process, in which other monuments might also be reduced, or even eliminated.
Maine’s Katahdin Woods &; Waters ought to be next on the list, precisely because of the underhanded way it was created, which puts it in a category all its own. It is a spectacularly beautiful place, by the way. So is the State of New York – this is not about that. It’s about how public policy decisions ought to be made.

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A Lurking Recession or Continued Economic Growth?

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The U.S. economy has expanded for 107 months as of this month, making it the second longest expansion on record.
The big question is whether economic growth will last 15 more months to hit record territory in July 2019 when it would surpass the longest expansion on record at 121 months.
The pessimists point out that interest rates are rising, the yield curve is flattening, consumer debt is increasing, inflation is inching up, and the stock market is down — all pointing toward a recession, not an expansion.
Yes, interest rates are rising, but they still remain at historic low levels.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, for example, has risen sharply from an all-time low in 2016 to end Wednesday at 2.97 percent, but still that is far from the 5 percent yield that it hit before the Great Recession began.
An inverted yield curve often proceeds a recession as the Federal Reserve is pushing the target federal funds rate higher, which causes 3-month bills and short-maturity Treasuries to rise above the longer-term 10-year Treasury.
As of last Wednesday, the yield spread, or difference between the 10-year and 3-month yields, was 113 basis points which provides plenty of room for the Fed to raise short-term interest rates during the process they say will be one of “gradual tightening.”
Consumer spending makes up about two-thirds of gross domestic product, so their health is critical to national growth.
Debt has been rising slightly but the broad household debt service ratio from the Federal Reserve was at a fairly low 10.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017 — much lower than the 13.2 percent at the start of the Great Recession.
On the other hand, tax cuts, low unemployment, and rising wages point to more spending power to fuel economic growth.
Rising wages do suggest the potential of a pickup in inflation, which could lead to more Fed tightening than currently expected, but such a scenario does not seem likely to occur over the next 15 months.
Increased investment by businesses in new plants and equipment resulting from corporate tax cuts and reductions in regulations also will support future economic growth.
Aside from the increased sales to firms that construct plants and manufacture equipment, business investment will ultimately increase productivity, which enables the economy to grow faster.
But what about the 10.1 percent decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average from its all-time high on January 26, 2018?
Even with the recent drop, the Dow remains about 30 percent higher since President Trump was elected.
The stock market tends to be pessimistic as Paul Samuelson, a well-known economist, said in 1966: “The stock market has called nine of the last five recessions.”
Based on these trends, and many others not noted in this column, I’m betting on this expansion going down in the record books as the longest in history.
(The article first ran in the May 7, 2018 edition of the Richmond Times Dispatch.)
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Taking Another Look at Tolls on I-81

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Interstate 81, which slices through western Virginia, is one of the most heavily trafficked highways in the Old Dominion. Nearly 12 million trucks travel the Interstate, accounting for 42% of all interstate truck traffic in the state and transporting more than $300 billion in goods per year. The tractor-trailers make other drivers miserable by hogging lanes as they pass one another on steep mountain inclines. Typically, trucks are involved in the 30 or so crashes a year that take six hours or longer to clear and generate miles-long backups.
Tractor-trailers have been a nagging headache for decades because the situation has defied an economically and politically viable remedy. There was serious talk some twenty years ago about imposing tolls to finance a multibillion-dollar upgrade from Winchester to Bristol, but the idea provoked fierce local resistance. The Virginia Department of Transportation opted instead for a less ambitious — and far less expensive — program of making spot improvements to alleviate the worst bottlenecks.
Now the talk of tolls is back. Legislation enacted this year orders the Commonwealth Transportation Board (CTB) to complete a study of tolling options by the end of 2018. The law restricts the parameters of the study, however, in a way that presupposes the outcome. The CTB, states SB 871, “shall not consider options that toll all users of Interstate 81” nor “commuters” but may consider “high occupancy toll lanes” and “tolls on heavy commercial vehicles.”
Reports the Bristol Herald Courier of the legislation:
“It is very specific in tolling either hot lanes, express lanes or a heavy commercial vehicle toll. The objective is to not toll commuters,” said Ben Mannell, VDOT’s deputy director of planning. “They’ve also asked us to look at minimizing the impact to heavy commercial vehicles, if we did have a tolling scenario.”
Part of the study will focus on the latest crash data, areas that have a high number of crashes, congestion, delays and the potential for operational improvements for incident response in case of a major crash, Mannell said.
The Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) will hold a dozen public hearings this summer.
Bacon’s bottom line. Take note: Commuters (i.e. voters) are not to be inconvenienced. By exempting commuters from tolls, the legislation envisions co-opting I-81, which was built for inter-city and interstate traffic, for the purpose of local travel. Virginia seems destined to repeat the error that turned Interstates 95, 395, and 495 in the Washington metropolitan area into traffic hell-holes that disrupt the flow of interstate traffic up and down the Atlantic Coast.
Conceptually speaking, there are two reasons for worsening congestion and traffic accidents on I-81: increased interstate traffic (mostly trucks) and increased local traffic. Local commuter traffic on the interstate hasn’t gotten as bad as in Northern Virginia because the metropolitan areas along the route — Winchester, Harrisonburg, Staunton, Roanoke, Blacksburg, Bristol — have experienced much slower rates of population and economic growth. But the dynamics are the same: New commercial and residential development clusters around the interchanges and people come to treat I-81 like a local transportation artery. Over time the Interstate clogs up, and commuters come to resent all those annoying tractor-trailers.
There is no way to solve the congestion problem on I-81 without solving the land use problem in each locality. Localities must stop treating the Interstate as a local transportation corridor. Instead of widening I-81 and paying premium prices to build at Interstate-grade standards, VDOT needs to build parallel transportation corridors designed for local use at lower travel speeds and lower construction costs. Furthermore, localities must eliminate zoning barriers to higher-density, mixed-use development supporting travel patterns of fewer, shorter trips.
As for some of the ideas contemplated in the VDOT study… Singling out heavy commercial vehicles for tolls may make political sense — out-of-state truckers don’t vote in Virginia — but it violates the purpose of the interstate to create connective tissue between states and metros. However, it would be appropriate to increase user fees on trucks so they pay their proportionate share that their super-heavy loads cause on the highway.
Tolls are a useful tool for funding transportation improvements and rationing scarce highway capacity. But they cannot do the job alone. All vehicles must pay their proportionate share of interstate maintenance and operations, and proper land use/transportation planning must provide commuters with viable options for local travel. Let’s hope that the authors of the I-81 study understand these principles better than those who wrote the legislation.
(This article first ran in the May 15, 2018 edition of Bacons Rebellion.)
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Climate Change Law Suits

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The wild storm of legal activity surrounding climate change claims began long ago and has now grown to a tidal wave. Here’s a rundown for those scoring at home:

  • November 2015 – New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman (since resigned and disgraced by sexual escapades) issued the first subpoena to Exxon which launched a series of investigations as to whether Exxon lied to the public about risks of climate change.
  • February 2016 – Schneiderman announced the formation of a Democrat Attorneys General group to further investigate Exxon. Now numerous legal battles have erupted in Texas, with one Texas judge ordering the Massachusetts Attorney General to appear in Texas for a deposition.
  • June 2017 – Schneiderman called Exxon’s climate change accounting a “sham.” Five cities and three counties in California have filed civil lawsuits against numerous oil and gas companies alleging a public nuisance claim. The lawsuits seek billions of dollars to pay for mitigation costs, such as building sea walls to protect coastal property.
  • March 2018 – A federal judge in San Francisco requested the parties to present a peer review of the science supporting climate change. San Francisco and Oakland are attempting to have five major oil producers pay the costs of protecting their coastal areas. Skeptics of climate change have asked the court in San Francisco to submit their views in an amicus brief. The judge has asked a number of questions and is looking for answers.

The oil companies, according to news reports, do not seem to be questioning the science behind climate change but are apparently arguing climate change is not their clients’ responsibility. The court, however, has pointed out several inaccuracies in the climate data and materials submitted by the plaintiffs against the oil companies.
The court has ripped plaintiffs’ claims there is a “smoking gun” document which alleged the oil companies have conspired to suppress information regarding their role in producing products which create carbon dioxide or CO2. The so called “smoking gun” document turned out to be a summary from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The court pointed out correctly that using this alleged scientific document would be tough since the IPCC document is riddled with inaccuracies.
A series of cases have been brought entitled Children’s Climate lawsuits. It is claimed young people are now at the forefront of climate change lawsuits and the young people claim federal and state governments are responsible for preventing and addressing climate change.
Nine children’s lawsuits have been filed in state courts. These children’s climate change cases are scheduled to begin in October of this year. Federal courts, as one would expect, in Oregon have denied requests to dismiss these cases. One federal appeals court has rejected the Trump administration’s effort to throw out the case, and the appeals court has ruled that the children’s case may proceed in a lower court. This of course is the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco.
The chief legal counsel for the Children’s Trust claims she wants to get to court as quickly as possible in 2018 because of the “…urgency of the climate crisis.” The Trust is asking the courts to force the Trump administration to enact policies and regulations which will cut the nation’s greenhouse gas emissions and halt all subsidies to the oil companies.
The skeptics of climate science claim that CO2 is no more of a pollutant than pure water and sunshine. Dr. William Happer, Professor Emeritus Department of Physics, Princeton University, is an expert on optics, radio frequency, spectroscopy of atoms and molecules, radiation propagation in the atmosphere, and many other areas. Dr. Happer was director of energy research in the Department of Energy under President Bush 41. Happer believes that climate change supporters are engaging in propaganda when they say 97% of scientists support climate change.
Happer observes that the term “global warming” has been replaced by the term “climate change.” He says, “much of this propaganda has been generated by research grants from the federal government.” He is concerned that research grants are only given to scientists who believe in climate alarmism.
“Climate alarmism has been greatly exacerbated by the government’s thumb on the scales of scientific research,” Happer said. “It is time for it to make amends with an honest review of climate science by a team of first-class scientists.”
Happer’s views are set forth in detail in the spring issue of Range Magazine. The possibility that the real science may be brought out may occur in a San Francisco courtroom.
We can only hope.
(This article first ran in the May 15, 2018 edition of Farm Futures.)
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Traffic Deaths: Distracted Drivers and Pedestrians

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Data on 2017 traffic deaths were released in February by the National Safety Council. They showed a 1% decrease (to 40,100) from 2016 overall, but a report released in March by the Governors Highway Safety Association found that pedestrian deaths continued to increase, to an estimated nearly 6,000 for 2017, after a similar total was reached in 2016. Between 2007 and 2016, reports the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), pedestrian deaths increased by 27%, while all other traffic deaths decreasedby 14%. What is going on here?
Cited as potential factors are the greatly increased use of mobile devices by both drivers and pedestrians. Kelly Blue Book auto analyst Rebecca Lindland told USA Today, “We’ve got distracted drivers, and we’ve got distracted pedestrians, and that is a deadly combination.” And yet, this kind of distraction is largely absent in official accident records, which are based on reports filed by the officers on scene. Most accident report forms include alcohol as a cause, but not cell-phone use, texting, or fiddling with dash-mounted infotainment systems.
Some research is capturing such causal factors, however. The National Safety Council did a reassessment of 2015 fatal-accident data, and estimated that cell phone use was involved in 26% of all these accidents. A 2017 study by Cambridge Mobile Telematics estimated that one-fourth of drivers were using their phones just before or during a crash. And don’t forget hands-free phoning in a vehicle. Several laboratory studies have found that drivers get just as distracted during a hands-free phone conversation as in a hand-held one. Two recent studies—one by AT&T in 2016 and another in 2017 by AAA both found that two-thirds of drivers admit to using smartphones while driving.
Drowsy driving is listed as the cause in only 1 to 2% of crashes in federal statistics, but the AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety found that 9.5% of all crashes involved drowsy driving, and 10.8% of all severe crashes. Last year AAA released the results of their study of dashboard distractions built into newer vehicles as another cause of driver distraction. This study was done by David Strayer of the University of Utah. He told AP reporter Joan Lowy that this array of buttons and touch screens is “adding more and more layers of complexity and information at drivers’ fingertips,” which increases the time a driver spends looking at the displays and controls, rather than out the windshield. AAA’s director of traffic safety reported that in AAA tests of 30 different 2017 model year cars and light trucks, drivers took their eyes off the road and hands off the wheel when using these systems, especially when programming in-vehicle navigation systems and when texting.
As a decades-ago member of the Society of Automotive Engineers, I think SAE has defaulted on its professional obligation to promulgate industry standards for in-dash equipment. These systems are hazardous and need to be redesigned to be far simpler to use; some should not be usable at all while the vehicle is in motion. Likewise, the mobile device industry should do a better job of offering and promoting systems that limit their operation while in motion.
(This article first ran in the April 2018 edition of Surface Transportation Innovations.)
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