Why Trump is playing tariff hardball with Canada

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Last week I wrote about Canada’s 270% tariff on certain U.S. dairy products. During the week, many of you saw Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attempting to blame the entire tariff issue on President Trump. He said his job was to stand up for Canadians, as he should. The media, of course, completely bought his story and portrayed our president as being wrong and harming the relationship between Canada and the United States.
As a result, I reviewed a report prepared by our U.S. embassies and the U.S. Commercial Service of the U.S. Department of Commerce. I suspect no one in the media or even in the agriculture media has bothered to examine what an official U.S. document states about Canada’s tariffs and trade barriers. I will list just a few.
On August 14, 2017, a summary was published entitled Canada – Import Tariffs. The Department of Commerce Commercial Service states that Canada has been good in eliminating tariffs on many industrial and agricultural products; however, it points out that “…tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) remain in place for dairy and poultry.”
A TRQ is a trade policy tool used to protect a domestically-produced commodity or product from competitive imports. The document states what we already know — dairy products exported to Canada “…are subject to high tariffs (e.g., 245% for cheese, 298% for butter).”
Another Canadian trick involves restrictions on U.S. grain exports. Canada’s tariff policies do not allow U.S. wheat and barley exporters to receive a premium grade to allow the grain products to be used for human use, but can only be used for feed use. Apparently, the Canadian Grain and Seeds Act requires this restriction.
These barriers assigned to U.S. grain products creates price discounting for high quality U.S. grain. Of course, Mr. Trudeau never discussed this problem.
Wine, beer and other spirits face interesting barriers which Mr. Trudeau did not discuss. The Commerce report states, “Most Canadian provinces restrict the sale of wine, beer, and spirits through province-run liquor control boards which are the sole authorized sellers of wine, beer, and spirits in those provinces.” British Columbia, for example, only allows British Columbia wines to be sold on its grocery store shelves. Any imported U.S. wine must be sold within a special store within a grocery store and have a separate cash register. Ontario, another Canadian province, declared in 2016 that wine sales in its grocery stores would be restricted to selling Ontario Vintners Quality Alliance wines. The Commerce Department report said this requirement may allow for discrimination against imported wines.
Even Canadian consumers seem to be fed up with the Canadian government’s tariffs, which drive up the cost for Canadian consumers. Canada has a personal duty exemption when its residents come across the border into the U.S. to purchase products. If a Canadian spends more than 24 hours outside of Canada, he or she may bring back duty free $200 (Canadian) worth of goods. If the Canadian citizen spends more than 48 hours in the U.S. he or she may bring back up to $800 worth of goods. However, if a Canadian citizen is in the U.S. for less than 24 hours, there is no duty exemption for what is purchased.
On May 11, 2018, The Globe and Mail, a Canadian newspaper, published a story on a Canadian Senate report which blamed the Canadian Finance department for keeping Canada’s tariffs in place. The newspaper report claimed Canada’s tariffs on mainly agricultural products generated at least $3.6 billion (Canadian) in revenues in 2010-2011. The newspaper column also declares “Canadian consumers have been subsidizing the dairy industry since the 1970’s through supply management, a complex system that relies on high tariffs to ensure rich and stable revenues to dairy farmers…”
The Globe and Mailstates “…there is a 299-per-cent tariff on butter, a 246-per-cent tariff on cheese, and a 241-per-cent tariff on milk.” These tariffs apply once a TRQ is met.
Canadian consumers complain bitterly about the prices they must pay in their home country compared to what they pay when traveling in the United States. By some estimates, over 3.5 million Canadians drive into U.S. border states every month. It is estimated by The Globe and Mail Canadians make more than 40 million trips into the U.S. annually. An economist for a Canadian consulting firm estimates that Canadian cross border shopping takes more than $20 billion from the Canadian economy because of Canada’s high tariffs.
Again, as I stated last week, our president is attempting to level the playing field. It would be refreshing to see some of our media stand up for the facts and the president.
(This article first ran in Farm Futures on June 19, 2018)
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The Impact of Defense Contracts on Virginia

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Virginia’s dependence on defense contracts puts it in both an enviable and awkward position.
It is enviable because firms in the state received more revenue from defense contracts performed than any other state in the nation in the federal fiscal year that ended Sept. 30, 2017, except for California.
It’s an awkward position because with 4.4 percent of the state’s gross domestic product dependent on defense contracts, the state’s economy can take a hit during defense downsizing — as it did in 2013. During that year, employment stalled in the state and grew only 0.7 percent compared to 1.6 percent growth in the nation.
In light of the state’s dependence on defense contracts, the U.S. Department of Defense’s Office of Economic Adjustment awarded Virginia a grant in 2012 to create a tool that gave the state and localities an understanding of the regions and industries that would be adversely affected by cuts in Defense Department spending. The tool was created to allow users to estimate the impact of reductions in DoD spending on localities so that mitigating strategies could be employed.
The fiscal year that ended September 2012 turned out to be the peak year of DoD spending for contracts performed in the state at $43.2 billion. The latest data available for fiscal year 2017 puts contracts performed at $34.6 billion, or a drop of 19.9 percent from the peak.
Moreover, in 2012, Virginia received more Defense Department contract spending for work performed than any other state. That changed in 2016 when California, with $35.5 billion in defense contracts, slipped ahead of Virginia’s $34.4 billion. In the most recent fiscal year, California performed $34.9 billion in contracts.
Gov. Ralph Northam announced last week that the Office of Economic Adjustment provided Virginia with another grant to release the next generation of the Defense Department contract spending impact tool on Virginia. The tool, which can be accessed at http://dod-va.chmuraecon.com, shows that 5.5 percent of the state’s workers are directly or indirectly dependent on defense contracts.
Many of those employees work in professional, scientific and technical services firms and possess computer-related skills.
In fact, the Northern Virginia portion of the Washington metropolitan area performed $22.0 billion in Defense Department contracts in the most recent fiscal year, the most of any region in the state.
Three-fifths of these contracts were in professional, scientific, and technical services firms. Northrop Grumman Systems had $1.4 billion in contracts, followed by Booz Allen Hamilton at $1.2 billion and Leidos Holdings (formerly Science Applications International Corp.) at $800 million.
The Virginia portion of the Hampton Roads metro area received at $9.7 billion in contracts – the second-largest amount of contract spending for work performed in 2017. As one might expect, shipbuilding firms received a large amount in contracts ($4.2 billion) with Huntington Ingalls Industries performing $3.3 billion of contracts last fiscal year.
Looking ahead, President Donald Trump’s defense budget calls for a 15 percent increase in defense spending from the current fiscal year through the fiscal year that will end Sept. 30, 2023.
That bodes well for Defense Department contractors in the state, where we forecast contracts to rise 12.6 percent from the last fiscal year to the 2019 fiscal year.
(This article first ran in the Richmond Times Dispatch on June 4, 2018)
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Murders, Arrests and the Politics of Racial Grievance

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The Washington Post had what could have been an interesting idea: Map more than 52,000 homicides and arrests in major American cities over the past decade. Sadly, the newspaper floundered with the data, unable to identify any meaningful trends other than the entirely predictable finding that some cities do a significantly better job of clearing its murders than others. Why that might be, other than some vague talk about the level of trust between police and inner-city populations, the Post had no clue.
Two cities were highlighted graphically in the WaPo’s analysis: Washington’s metropolitan neighbors Baltimore and Richmond. Baltimore stands out as a city dominated by “areas of impunity,” where murders go unsolved and murders are rarely caught. Richmond shines nationally as an example of a city where most murders are solved. Comparing policing practices and community attitudes in the two cities might have been instructive, but the WaPo took a different path.
There are no one-size-fits-all explanations for the variation in arrest rates across all cities, but I will nominate one factor that plays an outsized role: the politics of racial grievance.
Baltimore and Richmond are ideal test cases. Both have large populations of poor African-Americans living in highly segregated neighborhoods. Both have black-majority city councils. Both have black police chiefs and public prosecutors. Richmond has a black sheriff — I’m not sure what the equivalent position is in Baltimore, but whatever it is, I’ll wager that a black politician occupies the post. Thus, we can’t explain away the difference in arrest rates by the suggestion that, say, Richmond doesn’t have same kind of poor, inner city neighborhoods as Baltimore. Nor can we can’t blame the indifference of a white-dominated political class, as might be the case in other cities.
The difference, I submit, is political ideology. In Baltimore the death of Freddie Gray while in the custody of Baltimore police escalated into a highly emotional and widely publicized controversy that fed into the Black Lives Matter narrative of endemic racial injustice. Egged on by the media, Baltimore’s politically progressive mayor and prosecutor appealed to the black population’s resentments and grievances and lambasted the performance of the police. The resulting polarization sowed mistrust between police and blacks. In such a toxic environment, the police enjoy little cooperation from the black population, making it exceedingly difficult to track down murderers and close cases. As a consequence, the murder rate soars.
Richmond’s African-American leaders are notable for their moderation and pragmatism. They don’t stoke racial grievances. While they clearly represent the interests of their poor constituents, their rhetoric supports the idea that “we’re all in this together.” They don’t see politics as a zero-sum game. They see prosperity as a rising tide that lifts all ships. As a consequence, the racial polarization that poisons police-community relations in Baltimore is far less of a problem in Richmond. The payoff is a much higher rate of arrests and convictions of murderers, and safer streets for law-abiding minority residents. Bottom line: By eschewing radical progressive rhetoric, Richmond’s black politicians get better results for their constituents.
(This article first ran on June 12, 2018 in Bacon’s Rebellion)
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Getting to Yes on Expanded Truck Parking

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This spring the already-serious problem of insufficient safe parking spaces for long-haul trucks has gotten significantly worse. As noted last issue, the new federal effort to seriously enforce federal Hours of Service (HOS) rules, thanks to electronic log books (ELDs), means thousands of drivers are desperate to find a safe place to park and sleep before their allowed on-road time expires.
The American Transportation Research Institute, affiliated with the American Trucking Associations (ATA), reported in April that drivers now spend an average of an hour per day of drive time looking for a safe place to park. And during evening hours, ATRI found that 63% of drivers spend 15 minutes or longer looking for parking.
State DOTs are trying to help. The Midwest Association of State Transportation Officials is launching a Truck Parking Information & Management System along nine high-volume freight corridors, due to be fully operational by summer 2019. Florida DOT has an in-state project of the same kind under way. But those efforts can only reduce search time to existing parking areas, some of which are miles from the Interstates that are this country’s most important truck corridors.
Those Interstates are an underutilized resource. Nearly all have some “rest areas,” but those have only limited numbers of truck parking spaces and no services at all, except for vending machines. In hot or cold weather, a driver who parks there to sleep in his cab must keep the diesel engine running all night to provide heat or air conditioning, and cannot purchase food or fuel—or take a shower. Those amenities are lacking due to a federal law that bans “commercializing” Interstate highway rest areas. The ban is vociferously defended by the trade association NATSO, whose members include truck- stop chains, gas stations, and fast-food chains. They portray commercialization as “governments” competing unfairly with tax-paying businesses (their members) at or near (or not so near) off-ramps.
There are many problems with NATSO’s position. First, they portray the situation as zero-sum—any truck-stop or service plaza added to a rest area on an Interstate would displace, one-for-one, a comparable business off the Interstate. But the situation trucking faces today is a desperate need for expansion of safe overnight truck parking and the amenities that should go with it. Those amenities include electrification, so that the driver need not keep the motor running all night to have air conditioning, restaurant and shower facilities, perhaps recreation (video games?), refueling, and, in coming years, electric vehicle recharging, perhaps hydrogen refueling, etc. This should be a great business opportunity.
Commercializing Interstate rest areas—initially to serve the growing needs of trucking—would seem to offer Pilot Flying J, Travel Centers of America, and other truck-stop chains an opportunity to work with state DOTs (and possibly private financiers) to convert nearly useless “rest areas” into oases for truckers. I don’t know how much clout the major truck-stop chains have within NATSO, but somebody there should be starting this conversation.
Removing the federal ban will require getting legislation through Congress; that will be very difficult if both NATSO and ATA continue their current lobbying to maintain the status quo. But since the need is to expand capacity, perhaps there are transition measures that could make this change less threatening to the smaller NATSO members. What if Congress provided a 10-year transition period during which only companies that were NATSO members as of the date the law is changed could bid on contracts to operate at the commercialized Interstate rest areas? Seriously, can we start thinking outside the box on this problem?
(This article first ran in the June 2018 issue of Surface Transportation Innovations)
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New York court strikes down portions of permit for large dairies

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A New York Supreme Court struck down portions of a General Permit which would regulate large concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs).
The New York Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) issued a General Permit under its own water statute and the Clean Water Act (CWA). New York’s DEC regulates CAFOs in the state through regulations, permits, inspections, and enforcement actions. EPA and the State of New York can issue specific CWA permits, or through a General Permit, and the General Permit imposes pollution control requirements that require a CAFO to comply with a set of standards for farm operations.
CAFO pollution control requirements generally comply with Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) standards developed within USDA. NRCS has state specific policies and standards for developing land application effluent guidelines for large CAFOs. In New York DEC has adopted NRCS’ standards that identify Best Management Practices (BMPs) which relate to nutrient management, waste storage facilities, anaerobic digestion processes, waste transfer, vegetative treatment areas, treatment of dead animals and composting.
According to the Court’s decision, DEC has incorporated 10 NRCS standards into its General Permit. In addition, a General Permit requires a CAFO operator to prepare a comprehensive nutrient management plan (CNMP) and an annual nutrient management plan (ANMP).
After DEC published its initial draft for the General Permit, EPA sent DEC a letter in March 2016. EPA said the permit did not address 9 minimum measures relating to adequate storage of manure, litter, processed wastewater, diversion of clean water, appropriate testing of manure, and the handling of processed wastewater and soil.
On March, 10, 2017, EPA sent another letter to DEC suggesting some minor changes such as including a Frequently Asked Question document; on May 25, 2017, EPA again sent a letter declaring its “earlier concerns had been satisfied.”
Remember: a new President was elected at the end of 2016.
Environmental groups such as Earthjustice, Waterkeeper Alliance, Riverkeeper, Courtland-Onondaga Federation of Kettle Lake Associations, Sierra Club, and Theodore Gordon Flyfishers, Inc., sued DEC, claiming the state agency and its General Permit failed to meet key requirements of the CWA and its regulations. Specifically, the environmental organizations claimed DEC was not required to review and approve the nutrient management plans before granting coverage to a CAFO. Second, it was alleged DEC did not provide opportunity for public review and comment on whether a nutrient management plan was sufficiently compliant with the CWA.
Finally, the environmentalists charged that DEC “…does not require Comprehensive Management Plans (CMPs) and animal nutrient management plans (AMPs) to set forth enforceable, site-specific restrictions covering the full range of a CAFO’s operations that are at high risk for polluting water.”
CAFOs, by their very nature, are no discharge or zero discharge facilities. The environmental groups seek to use the public review issue as a way of controlling how a CAFO handles its manure on its own land.
The Court found EPA’s May 25, 2017 letter from Sec. Pruitt’s EPA office to be worthless, or as the Court said “…the letter has no persuasive force.” The Court found that DEC could not grant a General Permit without allowing the public an opportunity for notice and comment.
The DEC had claimed certain portions of the annual management nutrient plan included confidential information from the farm and therefore should not be made public. DEC felt there was a state policy with confidentiality with certain management data from a farm. The Court dismissed that argument.
The Court found the CNMP did not contain the CWA requirements for agency oversight, disclosure and public participation. The Court made the same finding regarding the AMP and said its structure was not in compliance with federal regulations and would be required to be made available for public review.
The DEC did win several portions of the case which related to the fact that CAFOs do not need to develop and implement site-specific effluent limitations.
Environmental groups claim that NRCS standards are not really standards but merely considerations or methodologies. The Court, in reviewing NRCS standards, said that they are relevant standards and contain numerous specific and enforceable requirements.
The Court also supported DEC regarding nutrient application where New York requires “…a lengthy set of detailed protocols governing the amount (rate), source, placement (method of application), and timing of plant nutrients and soil amendments.”
The environmentalists attempted to obtain legal fees for their supposed victory and the Court said no because both parties in this case had prevailed on certain issues.
This case is an indication of how General Permits issued by other states will be challenged by environmental groups.
(This article first ran in the May 9, 2018 issue of Farm Futures.)
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