Give thanks that we no longer live on the precipice

Posted on November 28, 2018 by matt ohern
Share this article on:

Thanksgiving is a good time to express our sincere gratitude that we no longer “enjoy” the “simpler life of yesteryear.” As my grandmother said, “The only good thing about the good old days is that they’re gone.”
For countless millennia, mankind lived on a precipice, in hunter-gatherer, subsistence farmer and primitive urban industrial societies powered by human and animal muscle, wood, charcoal, animal dung, water wheels and windmills. Despite backbreaking dawn-to-dusk labor, wretched poverty was the norm; starvation was a drought, war or long winter away; rampant diseases and infections were addressed by herbs, primitive medicine and superstition. Life was “eco-friendly,” but life spans averaged 35 to 40 years.
Then, suddenly, a great miracle happened! Beginning around 1800, health, prosperity and life expectancy began to climb … slowly but inexorably at first, then more rapidly and dramatically. Today, the average American lives longer, healthier and better than even royalty did a mere century ago.
How did this happen? What was suddenly present that had been absent before, to cause this incredible transformation?
Humanity already possessed the basic scientific method (1250), printing press (1450), corporation (1600) and early steam engine (1770). So what inventions, discoveries and practices arrived after 1800, to propel us forward over this short time span?
Ideals of liberty and equality took root, says economics historian Deidre McCloskey. Liberated people are more ingenious, free to pursue happiness, and ideas; free to try, fail and try again; free to pursue their self-interests and thereby, intentionally or not, to better mankind – just as Adam Smith described.
Equality (of social dignity and before the law) emboldened otherwise ordinary people to invest, invent and take risks. Once accidents of parentage, titles, inherited wealth or formal education no longer controlled destinies, humanity increasingly benefitted from the innate inspiration, perspiration and perseverance of inventors like American Charles Newbold, who patented the first iron plow in 1807.
Ideas suddenly start having sex, say McCloskey and United Kingdom parliamentarian and science writer Matt Ridley. Free enterprise capitalism and entrepreneurship took off, as did commercial and international banking, risk management and stock markets.
Legal and regulatory systems expanded to express societal expectations, coordinate growth and activities, and punish bad actors. Instead of growing, making and buying locally, we did so internationally – enabling families, communities and countries to specialize, and buy affordable products from afar.
The scientific method began to flourish, unleashing wondrous advances at an increasingly frenzied pace. Not just inventions like steam-powered refrigeration (1834) but, often amid heated debate, discoveries like the germ theory of disease that finally bested the miasma theory around 1870.
All this and more were literally fueled by another absolutely vital, fundamental advance that is too often overlooked or only grudging recognized: abundant, reliable, affordable energy – the vast majority of it fossil fuels. Coal and coal gas, then also oil, then natural gas as well, replaced primitive fuels with densely packed energy that could power engines, trains, farms, factories, laboratories, schools, hospitals, offices, homes, road building and more, 24 hours a day, seven days a week, 365 days a year.
The fuels also ended our unsustainable reliance on whale oil, saving those magnificent creatures from extinction. Eventually, they powered equipment that removes harmful pollutants from our air and water.
Today, coal, oil and natural gas still provide 80% of America’s and the world’s energy for heat, lights, manufacturing, transportation, communication, refrigeration, entertainment and every other aspect of modern life. Equally important, they supported and still support the infrastructure and vibrant societies, economies and institutions that enable the human mind (what economist Julian Simon called our Ultimate Resource) to create seemingly endless new ideas and technologies.
Electricity plays an increasingly prominent and indispensable role in modern life. Indeed, it is impossible to imagine life without this infinitely adaptable energy form. By 1925, half of all U.S. homes had electricity; a half century later, all did – from coal, hydroelectric, natural gas or nuclear plants.
Medical discoveries and practices followed a similar trajectory, as millions of “invisible hands” worked together across buildings, cities, countries and continents – without most of them ever even knowing the others existed. They shared and combined ideas and technologies, generating new products and practices that improved and saved billions of lives.
Medical research discovered why people died from minor wounds, and what really caused malaria (1898), smallpox and cholera. Antibiotics (the most vital advance in centuries), vaccinations and new drugs began to combat disease and infection. X-rays, anesthesia, improved surgical techniques, sanitation and pain killers (beginning with Bayer Aspirin in 1899) permitted life-saving operations. Indoor plumbing, electric stoves (1896) and refrigerators (1913), trash removal, and countless other advances also helped raise average American life expectancy from 46 in 1900 to 76 (men) and 81 (women) in 2017.
Washing visible hands with soap (1850) further reduced infections and disease. Wearing shoes in southern U.S. states (1910) all but eliminated waterborne hookworm, while the growing use of window screens (1887) kept hosts of disease-carrying insects out of homes. Petrochemicals increasingly provided countless pharmaceuticals, plastics and other products that enhance and safeguard lives.
Safe water and wastewater treatment – also made possible by fossil fuels, electricity and the infrastructure they support – supported still healthier societies that created still more prosperity, by eliminating the bacteria, parasites and other waterborne pathogens that made people too sick to work and killed millions, especially children. They all but eradicated cholera, one of history’s greatest killers.
Insecticides and other chemicals control disease-carrying and crop-destroying insects and pathogens. Ammonia-based fertilizers arrived in 1910; tractors and combines became common in the 1920s. Today, modern mechanized agriculture, fertilizers, hybrid and biotech seeds, drip irrigation and other advances combine to produce bumper crops that feed billions, using less land, water and insecticides.
The internal combustion engine (Carl Benz, 1886) gradually replaced horses for farming and transportation, rid cities of equine pollution (feces, urine and corpses), and enabled forage cropland to become forests. Today we can travel states, nations and the world in mere hours, instead of weeks – and ship food, clothing and other products to the globe’s farthest corners. Catalytic converters and other technologies mean today’s cars emit less than 2% of the pollutants that came out of tailpipes in 1970.
Power equipment erects better and stronger houses and other buildings that keep out winter cold and summer heat, better survive hurricanes and earthquakes, and connect occupants with entertainment and information centers from all over the planet. Radios, telephones, televisions and text messages warn of impending dangers, while fire trucks and ambulances rush accident and disaster victims to hospitals.
Today, modern drilling and mining techniques and technologies find, extract and process the incredible variety of fuels, metals and other raw materials required to manufacture and operate factories and equipment, to produce the energy and materials we need to grow or make everything we eat, wear or use.
Modern communication technologies combine cable and wireless connections, computers, cell phones, televisions, radio, internet and other devices to connect people and businesses, operate cars and equipment, and make once time-consuming operations happen in nanoseconds. In the invention and discovery arena, Cosmopolitan magazine might call it best idea-sex ever.
So, this holiday season, give thanks for all these blessings – while praying and doing everything you can to help bring the same blessings to billions of people worldwide who still do not enjoy them.
Email this author

Posted in Economic Development, Economy | Comments Off on Give thanks that we no longer live on the precipice

Virginia Should Avoid Frivolous Climate Litigation

Posted on November 14, 2018 by matt ohern
Share this article on:

Is the company that makes ladders legally responsible if you fall off of one?  Or if you cut yourself picking up broken glass, is the maker of that glass legally liable?  You probably think such lawsuits would be “silly” and should be tossed from the courts immediately.
And then again, a consumer of diseased chicken purchased at a local grocery store likely has a legal claim if he or she can identify a specific processing plant or chicken farm that caused the problem.  However, catching the flu because I live next door to an elementary school does not give me much of a chance of winning a lawsuit against the school or the community for having children running around with colds.  But this kind of flawed reasoning is the basis of law suits by some progressive (read “left-wing”) state and local governments around the country against energy companies because of “climate change.”
However, should state or local governments get involved in frivolous or nuisance law suits using taxpayers’ money?
As Virginia’s statewide elected officials, and some of our local officials, show more and more “progressive” or left-wing tendencies, it is hoped that these governments will not be part of the national legal fad of suing energy companies. This would be a misuse of taxpayers’ money and, according to some responsible legal minds, of the law as well.  Lawsuits initiated by governments with a political or ideological agenda focused on energy companies detract from efforts to have a serious, fact-based discussion on climate change and how best to confront it.
One year ago, San Francisco and Oakland, followed by other counties and cities on the Pacific coast, filed lawsuits against several energy companies alleging they knowingly contributed to climate change.  These lawsuits hope to force the companies to pay for economic and property losses resulting from projected rises in sea levels, droughts, and wildfires linked to climate change. New York City filed a similar suit as did Baltimore. In July, Rhode Island became the first U.S. state to test this strange legal theory.
Climate change is a global phenomenon with various and conflicting potential causes. Even if climate change could be linked directly to human activity, that human activity encompasses a lot more than a handful of companies supplying energy key to maintaining our living standard. Each of us creates demand for energy to be sure our lights turn, that we can fill up our gas tanks or charge our electric cars, and that our furnaces and air conditioners do their expected job. So are we are all guilty of causing climate change?
Without the production and supply of energy, human civilization would be impossible. New York City’s lawsuit  was dismissed last July.  Federal District Judge John Keenan wrote, “The immense and complicated problem of global warming requires a comprehensive solution that weighs the global benefits of fossil fuel use with the gravity of the impending harms.” Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg, a “liberal” on our highest court, wrote in 2011 that corporations cannot be sued for greenhouse gas emissions under federal common law and instructed that legislative bodies and government agencies are, “…better equipped to do the job than individual district judges issuing ad hoc, case-by-case decisions.”
Thankfully, the silliness of seeking multi-billion dollar payments from specific companies for the worldwide phenomenon of climate change is not lost on some elected officials. Earlier this year 15 state Attorneys General filed an amicus brief  opposed to the law suits filed by San Francisco and Oakland. They pointed out that the “…list of potential defendants is limitless.” What they are saying is that any producer or consumer of significant amounts of energy could be sued.   Indeed, if such law suits succeeded, they would criminalize the manufacture of products that people want and need. And manufacturers other than energy companies would become sitting ducks for those who enjoy harassment by lawsuit.
Virginia’s state or local governments should remain on the sidelines and not participate in such lawsuits.  It would be much better for Virginia’s governments to partner with energy companies and other manufacturers to reduce environmental problems by working together for the benefit of all.  Such cooperation would help calm the hyper-intensity of the current level of political and policy animosity.
(This column first ran in the Fredericksburg Free Lance Star on November 13, 2018.)
Email this author

Posted in Energy, Environment | Comments Off on Virginia Should Avoid Frivolous Climate Litigation

Virginia’s Diabetes Problem

Posted on November 14, 2018 by matt ohern
Share this article on:


Health may be correlated with income and Virginia may have the ninth-highest average household income among the 50 states, but the Old Dominion ranks 23rd in the nation for the incidence of diabetes, according to a Gallup-Sharecare report based on 2017 data. The incidence of diabetes has increased from 10.6% of the population to 11.1% since 2008-09. Meanwhile, in a parallel development, the incidence of obesity has risen from 25.1% to 27.3%.
Central Appalachia is particularly afflicted with the disease. West Virginia has the highest incidence in the nation, and among metropolitan areas, Kingsport-Bristol is ninth highest. Among Virginia metros, the rates are:

The survey covers the 186 largest metro areas in the country.
The spreading prevalence of diabetes is distressing news for those afflicted by the disease. And, given the socialization of medical costs by means of government programs and innumerable subsidies and cross-subsidies, it is distressing for all of us who have to pay for it.
Gallup-Sharecare explained the economic costs associated with the disease:
If the diabetes rate had remained at its 2008 level, about 2.3 million fewer U.S. adults would have the disease today, and healthcare costs due to diabetes would be an estimated $19.2 billion less than current costs.
Diabetes not only impacts the U.S. economy through direct costs, but also through lower employee productivity due to unplanned absenteeism. After controlling for all major demographics as well as BMI weight class, over 57 million additional unplanned days of work are missed each year by workers who have diabetes as compared to workers without diabetes. This costs U.S. employers $20.4 billion annually.
Diabetes represents both a problem and an opportunity for Virginia. Medical costs weigh heavily upon the state, creating a major economic burden. Conversely, successfully targeting diabetes could reap an economic boon.
Bacon’s bottom line: I have become acutely attuned to the perils of diabetes since I was diagnosed with pre-diabetes a year ago. My glucose level has not risen to a dangerous level, but it’s been bouncing around in the undesirable zone. Since getting the unwelcome diagnosis, I have made tremendous efforts to take control of the situation. I’ve lost about 12 pounds and kept the weight off. I have altered my habits and routine to get more exercise (not a terribly hard thing to do because I enjoy exercise), and I have cut my carbohydrates (a very hard thing to do because it has meant giving up milk shakes and french fries).
If I can do it, so can others. And if others don’t do it, I get miffed. While there may be a genetic component to the disease, diabetes is the result of behavior. Why should I pay more in taxes and health insurance because others don’t make greater efforts to take care of themselves? Our system of health insurance creates a moral hazard — it does not punish poor habits or reward good ones. I don’t know how we, as a society, lick this problem. Treating diabetics like smokers and charging them more for insurance does not seem like a humane solution. But something has got to give.
(This article first ran in the November 13, 2018 issue Bacons Rebellion)
– bacon-90Email this author

Posted in Health Care | 1 Comment

Some Relief on U.S. Congestion

Posted on November 14, 2018 by matt ohern
Share this article on:

(Editor’s note:  As Virginia plans for future road construction, expansion and possible High Occupancy Toll lanes, this article is important to that discussion.)
Big-data firm INRIX last month released its 2017 Global Traffic Scorecard. It reports data on the extent of traffic congestion in 1,360 metro areas worldwide. Of the world’s 10 most-congested metro areas, five are in the United States. The non-U.S. members of that elite group are Moscow (2nd most-congested), Sao Paulo (4th), Bogota (6th), London (7th), and Paris (10th).
When I reviewed the 13 U.S. metro areas that made the INRIX top 45 most-congested, some very interesting patterns emerged. Here is my summary of the data.

The extent of pricing is my subjective assessment of the fraction of limited-access facilities that are either toll roads or variably priced managed lanes. When I used the percentage of peak period that is congested, I found that the average for those in metro areas rated high on pricing was 12.3%; for those rated medium, the average was 18.8%; and for those rated low (or none), the average was 23.4%.
The other point that leaps out of the table is the change in rank of Dallas and Houston, both of which moved significantly lower in the league table of most-congested metro areas. Both have a growing fraction of their expressways that are tollways, and both have expanding networks of variably priced managed lanes. Also striking is that Portland, with just one-third the population of Dallas, has nearly the same average congested hours per commuter and has nearly double the percentage of peak period hours that are congested. Perhaps this explains why Portland is on the verge of a decision to implement pricing on several of its freeways.
(This article first ran in the October 2018 issue of Surface Transportation Innovations.)
Email this author

Posted in Transportation | Comments Off on Some Relief on U.S. Congestion

Monsanto may get new trial on punitive damages

Posted on November 14, 2018 by matt ohern
Share this article on:

On October 22, 2018 a Superior Court of California in San Francisco denied Monsanto’s motion for a judgment notwithstanding the verdict for $289 million verdict in the glyphosate trial (a request for a trial judge to reverse the verdict for lack of fact or law.) The Superior Court judge conditionally denied Monsanto’s motion for a new trial. The judge told the plaintiff, Dwayne Johnson, that he should accept the court’s reduction of the $289 million verdict to $39 million for punitive damages and $39 million approximately for compensatory damages. Plaintiff must do so no later than Friday, December 7, 2018.
Most news stories about this case missed the fact that Monsanto might get a new trial as to punitive damages if the 46-year-old former groundskeeper does not accept the reduction of damages awarded to him by a California jury.
The Monsanto case was a trial about a design defect and a failure to warn Mr. Johnson that his exposure to glyphosate and glyphosate-based herbicides caused him to develop a subtype of non-Hodgkin’s disease lymphoma. The California judge found there was no legal basis to disturb the juries’ determination that plaintiff’s exposure to glyphosate was a substantial factor in causing his lymphoma.
This case was a battle of the experts; plaintiff’s expert was a former practicing oncologist and he did not dispute that he is unable to identify a cause of non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma in the majority of his patients. Even so, the court stated, “Nonetheless, Dr. (Chadi) Nabhan opined that Mr. Johnson’s [plaintiff] cancer was not idiopathic (arises spontaneously) and that there was substantial evidence [non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma] was caused by his exposure to glyphosate a known carcinogen causing non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma.”
The court then goes on to discuss that Dr. Nabhan found no other exposures which would cause non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. Therefore, the doctor concluded that glyphosate “…was the most substantial contributing factor…” to Mr. Johnson’s disease.
The court concluded plaintiff’s expert did not need “…to eliminate every other possible cause of plaintiff’s cancer. Because there is no substantial evidence of an alternative explanation for plaintiff’s non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, the jury here was free to give weight to Dr. Nabhan’s testimony that glyphosate [was] a substantial factor in causing the cancer.”
Monsanto presented expert witnesses who superiorly and articulately criticized plaintiff’s expert. The judge for some reason did not apply appropriate judgment, and because it was a factual scientific dispute, the judge left the matter up to the jury to resolve – hence, the $289 million verdict.
As to the punitive damages that drove the verdict to $289 million, the court ruled that malice by Monsanto did not require actual intent to harm.
The court goes into an extended discussion regarding federal due process constraints regarding the compensatory damage award of $39 million plus:

  • It points out that it can serve as a check on arbitrary awards by juries and indicated the punitive damages must be constitutionally reduced because of due process concerns;
  • It found that $39-plus million is extremely high for a single plaintiff;
  • It believed that Monsanto’s conduct was not so reprehensible as to require millions of dollars in punitive damages;
  • It then reduced the $289 million jury verdict to roughly $79 million.

Agricultural interests may believe such a case as Johnson v Monsanto has no impact, when a court in San Francisco with no interest or exposure to agriculture makes its decision on a product as important as glyphosate. But literally hundreds of scientific studies and data show glyphosate is safe, while one institution in France says the product might be a “probable” human carcinogen.  Agricultural interests beware.
(This article ran in the October 31, 2018 edition of Farm Futures.)
Email this author

Posted in Agriculture | Comments Off on Monsanto may get new trial on punitive damages