Your Government Will Take That!

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Suzette Kelo bought what she thought was her dream house, a little pink cottage in Connecticut with a great view, where the Thames River flows into Long Island Sound. She lovingly restored the home, but her dream didn’t last. When a pharmaceutical plant was built nearby, the City of New London decided the residential section would generate a lot more tax revenue if occupied by larger and more expensive commercial buildings. So, the town council turned over its power of “eminent domain” to a private development company, all the homes in the neighborhood were condemned, the residents forced out, and their homes torn down or moved away.
The developers went broke and abandoned the project, so Suzette’s quaint neighborhood is now a parking lot. She and several neighbors, some of whom had lived there for generations, sued the city, which had used its right to condemn private property, not for public use, but to transfer ownership to a different private owner. In one of its most controversial decisions, the U.S. Supreme Court sided with the City, ruling that economic development (i.e. upgrading the value of a neighborhood) is a “public use” under the Fifth Amendment.
That was 12 years ago, and it sparked enough public outrage that 43 States have now strengthened protections for private property against local condemnation powers. The Fifth Amendment is an essential part of the Bill of Rights, ensuring among other things, “nor shall private property be taken for public use without just compensation.” The founders understood, of course, that sometimes private property stands in the way of public progress, such as when highways are built. The public good cannot be held hostage by one owner, whose refusal to sell might otherwise block needed transportation or other infrastructure projects. Thus, all governments have the right of “eminent domain” to handle such cases, and they must pay owners the fair market value of land thus taken for public use.
What is a “public use” under the law? The Supreme Court determined in the 1950s that elimination of slums and blight could be considered an important public purpose, in another landmark case involving the slums of Southwest Washington, D.C. It’s hard to imagine now, but at the time, 64 percent of the homes in that quadrant were found to be “beyond repair.” Over 60 percent of them had no bathrooms and some didn’t even have outhouses. Almost a third had no electricity, 82 percent had no laundry tubs, and 84 percent had no central heat. A comprehensive plan was created and the local government’s eminent domain powers were used to tear down blocks of slums, which are now occupied by government buildings and hotels. But isn’t there a difference between the public’s interest in eliminating slums, and a city’s desire to enhance its revenue by turning over one person’s property to another owner who promises to build something bigger?
The Supreme Court said there is not a difference, but public opinion has clearly said otherwise, which is why most States now prohibit what the city of New London did to Suzette Kelo. But some towns don’t actually take away a property’s deed, just its value.
David Lucas bought two lots on a barrier island near Charleston; then the South Carolina Coastal Commission changed the zoning laws, prohibiting the two houses he planned to build. His lawsuit went all the way to the Supreme Court, which re-affirmed the Fifth Amendment prohibition against government taking private property for public purposes without just compensation – even when the “taking” is of the land’s value, rather than its actual title.
Just four years later, though, Jim Wickstra bought a 3-acre parcel on Lake Michigan, intending to build a beach home. A few months later, the Legislature passed a law to stop development along the lakefront. Mr. Wickstra’s permit was then denied. The State tax agency ruled that the property was worth $200,000 with a building permit and only $500 without it. Yet he spent more than a decade fighting to get compensation for the loss of his property value, unsuccessfully. The courts ruled that $199,500 was an insufficient decline in value to justify compensation.
Courts have been all over the map on this issue, so legislatures need to address it. Property values may be substantially reduced for perfectly legitimate public purposes (such as open space preservation). But a society willing to take away that value must also be willing to compensate the owners from whom it is taken. It’s one of America’s founding principles.

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Fed Financing Act Not at Risk from SH 130 Bankruptcy

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Speaking of populist critics of P3 concessions, one of the oddest is a Virginia writer named Randy Salzman. In pieces written for various media, including Thinking Highways, Salzman has put forth the view that P3 concessions are actually scams that harm taxpayers. The opening sentence of his Feb. 9, 2017 commentary for the “Bacon’s Rebellion” blog in Virginia, was the following: “The history of American transportation ‘public private partnerships’ indicates that virtually all P3 shell companies go bankrupt before paying back federal loans and the ‘private activity bonds’ which they sold to finance part of the debt.”
His target in this column was last year’s bankruptcy filing of the concession company for SH 130 (Segments 5 & 6), a toll road sponsored by Texas DOT to relieve growing congestion on parallel I-35 between Austin and San Antonio. The northern sections, through Austin’s suburbs, are doing fine, but the rural Segments 5 and 6 (the only ones developed under a revenue-risk P3 concession), fell far short of projected traffic and revenue.
Salzman wrote this piece before the final bankruptcy settlement, which I have recently researched to see who won and who lost. The original SH 130 Concession Company lost its $220 million equity investment, as is typical in a bankruptcy, in which providers of debt have priority over equity investors. Instead of Private Activity Bonds, the largest debt provider was a consortium of eleven Spanish banks, which loaned $686 million. And the federal Transportation Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act (TIFIA) program provided a loan of $550 million.
The banks and TIFIA negotiated the bankruptcy settlement, which became final on June 28, 2017. Under that settlement, a new concession company was created, to manage and operate the toll road for the remaining years of the concession, and the existing debt was wiped out. The banks and TIFIA now own about half the equity in the new company, and TIFIA also holds a new $87 million subordinated loan. A slight majority of the equity in the new company is owned by Strategic Value Investors. SVI has hired a company to make some needed pavement repairs and has contracted with Louis Berger Services for operations and maintenance on the toll road. SVI also negotiated a $260 million credit facility with Goldman Sachs, to provide working capital.
It is widely believed that once the repairs are completed, the TIFIA office will offer most or all of its ownership stake for sale—and my guess is that there will be many bidders. SH 130’s traffic has recently increased by 16%, attracting about 10% of the traffic on I-35. And Berger is projecting annual traffic increases of about 6% a year, based on continuing increases in congestion on I-35.
So who are the winners and losers from this bankruptcy? Cintra and Zachry were the equity investors, and they lost their equity in this project—a risk they were willing to take. TxDOT got the final sections of its long-planned alternative to I-35 at no cost to its budget. Motorists got a high-speed, uncongested alternative to I-35 that has remained in service during the bankruptcy process. And TIFIA is expected to come out whole once it sells its new equity interest in the toll road.
And for those who worry that the TIFIA program is a risk to federal taxpayers, an update on the overall TIFIA portfolio, from the Transportation Research Board’s 2017 Annual Meeting back in January, found the portfolio to be in good shape. Of the projects generating pledged revenue (mostly tolls), 76% were either well above base-case forecasts or somewhat above base-case. Some 20% were below-case by 20% or less, and only 5% were well below base-case. As for credit ratings, 78% were unchanged from financial close, 19% have been upgraded, and only 3% have been downgraded. The report also noted that “Some of our best-performing projects are currently green-field toll roads,” such as Houston’s Grand Parkway, Dallas’s SH 161 and Chisholm Trail Parkway, and various express toll lane projects.
The bottom line, contrary to Randy Salzman’s fever dreams, is that toll-financed P3 concession projects are doing well. And even in the case of the occasional bankruptcy, taxpayers have not been put at risk.
(This column first ran in the September issue of Surface Transportation Innovations)
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Virginia Gains if Obamacare is Replaced

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The Obamacare health replacement debate has re-entered the public arena with the dramatic new effort by center-right Senators Lindsay Graham and Bill Cassidy. Their idea is to send block grants to the states to spend on state designed and managed health care systems.
A recent study on this bill by the health care industry consulting firm, Avalere, says that Virginia will gain $3 billion between now and 2026 (see study here)! So those wringing their hands here in Virginia over this new reform effort should not be so quick to ridicule it.
Health Care is the major issue that has defined the differences in political philosophies. The Liberal/Progressive end of the spectrum wants a path toward a single-payer, one-size-fits all, federal government mandated health care system and Obamacare is a significant step in that direction. The Conservative/Libertarian side of the political spectrum wants health care to be designed and executed by our state governments, where there is more input from the citizens than at the federal level. And that will produce broader support than we see today when insurance prices are skyrocketing and more than half of the counties in our 50 states have no insurance coverage or only one option — not what was promised under Obamacare.
It makes sense that our states, if given the opportunity, will be able to design a health care system that better fits the needs of their citizens.
The knee jerk opposition by those who are totally committed to Obamacare, especially those here in Virginia, need to take a look at this Avalere study mentioned above. Virginia will gain $3 billion. That’s quite an increase in federal health care dollars coming into our state over the next ten years.
The biggest change this new legislation will require is that health care monies, including those for Medicaid, will be sent to the states in block grants, something that many center-right politicians and intellectual leaders have advocated for years. If that happens, then our nation will have the chance to create a health care system that will vary from state to state and will provide different and innovative approaches including a better system for those who qualify for Medicaid. These folks need a truly creative, market-oriented, modern health care system and our states will be able to craft.
Each state will likely approach their new health care responsibilities a little differently. What works in one state may not in another. And when some new approach does work, other states can decide whether it makes sense to pick up that idea, re-mold it to fit their own state’s circumstances and provide what should be better health care services than the Obamacare does today. These state systems will provide more innovations in delivery ideas at a lower cost than does the current federal government approach to health care.
The center-right leadership in our country has been advocating for years that Medicaid and other health care responsibilities be sent to the states. States would now be given the freedom to create a health care system that will hopefully deliver better care for a less expensive price tag.
Indeed, simply by reducing the federal government bureaucracy should bring substantially more money to the states. If this new system is efficiently and effectively designed, then significantly fewer federal employees will be needed to execute this program. By reducing the “overhead” in Washington DC will provide more money to the states.
The Graham-Cassidy approach puts those who have been advocating for more state control of the health care dollars in a position they have dreamed about for years – to control at the state level how health care money is spent. This opportunity is exciting and will force these advocates of local control to actually put their idea into practice. What a wonderful challenge and incredible opportunity!
If this dramatic change in health care policy actually becomes law, then our next Governor will have a huge new responsibility to create a modern, better managed health care delivery system than we have today. That is quite a legacy that will be waiting for who we elect in a few short weeks.
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The End is Near (sort of)

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Ten years ago, the main concern for the Social Security Trust Fund was that dedicated tax revenues would fall below program costs starting in 2017. That has come to pass. According to the Trustees of Social Security and Medicare, Social Security will run an annual non-interest deficit of approximately $51 billion between 2017 and 2020 after which it will steeply rise.
According to current projections, the Social Security Trust Funds will be exhausted completely in 2034, which is seven years earlier than the Social Security Trustees thought just ten years ago in 2007. What this means for current and future beneficiaries is when the Trust Fund balance reaches “zero” there will be an across the board cut to benefits to match the amount of dedicated Social Security taxes being paid. That cut to current beneficiaries will be as much as twenty-five percent of what they are receiving. The social consequences of such a substantial cut would be disastrous for the millions of seniors dependent on Social Security for their survival.
Social Security will not go bankrupt as some in the chattering class say. The law does not permit the program to pay out more than it takes in through the Old Age and Survivors and Disability Insurance taxes withheld from everyone’s pay. That is why there will be such a dramatic cut in benefits. Congress could choose to make up the shortfall by taking money from general revenues but that is not a sustainable proposition given that Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Obamacare, and interest on the debt already consume more than two-thirds of all federal spending.
The problem is exacerbated by the huge wave of Baby Boomers retiring, which has begun and will continue over the next fifteen years. This retirement wave is increasing the cost of Social Security payments just at the time when there are fewer workers coming into the workforce and paying into system. According to the Social Security Administration, there are now fewer than three workers supporting each beneficiary and that number will drop further in the coming decade. Longer life expectancy and lower fertility rates undermine the program even further.
The problem facing Social Security is inherent in its design. The system was created in 1935 as an innovative form of “social insurance” rather than a welfare program and it was based on the premise that there always would be substantially more workers paying into the system than retirees receiving benefits. It also set the retirement age at 65, which, at that time, was the average life expectancy. The theory was that most people would not collect too long or too much and the program designers never anticipated large numbers of beneficiaries collecting payments for twenty years or more.
At the time that Social Security was being designed, a contributory program in which workers provided for their future retirement security by making payments into a system that used the funds to pay current benefits made sense compared to the many radical plans floated during the depths of the Great Depression. The flaw in the design would only become apparent many years later as the number of workers per beneficiary began to decline. In 1940, the first year in which Social Security benefits were paid, there were 159 workers for each beneficiary. By 1950, that ratio had declined to 16.5 workers per beneficiary. By 1960 the ratio had fallen to 4:1, and today there are 2.8 workers for each recipient and that is projected to further decline to only two workers per beneficiary by the year 2030.
In the mid-1990s, Congress passed legislation gradually increasing the retirement age from 65 to 67. While that was a step in the right direction, Congress must act to avert a real crisis which would have devastating effects on not just the beneficiaries of Social Security but all of us.
Clearly, the sooner Congress acts to address these long-range problems the better for the beneficiaries and the taxpayers alike. A combination of further increasing the retirement age, increases in OASDI-dedicated taxes, means testing, and private sector solutions are on the table. As the Trustees say in their report, the projected trust fund deficits should be addressed in a timely way to allow for a gradual phasing in of the necessary changes and to provide advance notice to workers. Making adjustments sooner will allow people to plan properly and avoid personal and financial crises.
The Trustees of Social Security and Medicare are Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin, Secretary of Health and Human Services Dr. Tom Price, Secretary of Labor Alex Acosta, and Social Security Commissioner Nancy Berryhill. There is a vacancy in each of the two Public Trustee positions. Regardless of which party has controlled the White House, the reports of the trustees have been unanimous, bi-partisan, and consistent over time. Congress would do well to heed their advice.
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I Love Mankind, It's Just People I Can't Stand

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On Sept. 9, 12-year-old Bethany Harper and her nine-year-old friend Solai Coleman were sitting on the front porch of their house on Fifth Avenue in Richmond. Bethany heard the crackling pop of gunfire, and a random bullet struck Solai in the hip.
“We had nothing to do with the transaction [that led to the shooting] Saturday, but they shot at our children” Bethany’s father Thomas told the Richmond Times-Dispatch. “We have a new rule in this house: ‘You’re not allowed to go beyond this line,’ he said, planting his foot on the front of the family’s wooden porch.
The number of killings in Richmond has surged this year, reaching 59 so far compared with 45 at the same point last year, which itself was the worst in a decade. Many victims are innocent bystanders. So far, the 2016-17 school year has seen 25 students in Richmond city schools shot, along with a one-year-old child of two students. Fourteen others were victims of aggravated assault or malicious wounding.
No one will hold a vigil for Solai Coleman. No one will protest the injustice of criminal actions that confine Bethany Harper to the inside of her home. There will be no marches, no placards, and no made-for-TV media spectacles. Apparently, black lives don’t matter when the killers are black. Black lives matter only when the shooter is white or a police officer. Or when when the sight of Civil War statues offend the sensibilities of those who view the world through the filter of white oppression.
The Times-Dispatch ran the article about Coleman’s shooting atop the front page of its Sunday edition. With no sense of irony, it published underneath an article about a Saturday rally around the Robert E. Lee statue that drew about seven pro-Confederate, heritage-not-hate types and a crowd of counter protesters estimated to be a couple hundred in number.
The counter protesters were incensed by the handful of neo-Confederates (most of whom came from out of state), just as they are incensed by the KKK, Nazis, white supremacists, President Trump, and “haters” generally. But neo-Confederates didn’t shoot Solai Coleman. Nazis didn’t shoot her. The KKK didn’t shoot her. Nor did white hate groups shoot any of the other 59 homicide victims in Richmond this year. Aside from occasional vigils held by victims’ family members and immediate neighbors, however, the social justice warriors have not ginned up much outrage or marched in protest of the black-on-black slaughter in Richmond’s inner city.
If the social justice warriors cared about real people instead of abstractions like “institutional racism,” which serve mainly to validate their sense of moral superiority, they would volunteer to tutor inner-city school children. Or befriend an adolescent through the Big Brother/Big Sister program. Or pound nails with Habit for Humanity to build affordable housing. Or ladle out soup in a community kitchen to serve the hungry. Or help felons build a productive life outside jail. But that takes real effort, sustained effort. And it’s not nearly as rewarding as virtue signalling to your peers how politically correct you are or venting about the evils of KKK/Fascists/Trump.
As an aside, I have to commend Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney and Police Chief Alfred Durham for making sure that the Richmond rally didn’t turn into another Charlottesville. They made it clear from the very beginning that violence would not be tolerated, and they worked to separate the protesters from the counter-protesters. By broadcasting their intent, they snuffed out interest in the rally by right- and left-wing radicals looking to bang heads and make headlines long before the event took place. Job well done.
(This article first ran in Bacon’s Rebellion on September 18, 2017)
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