Why Does Virginia’s Job Growth Rate Continue to Lag the Nation?

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Virginia keeps adding jobs on a monthly basis, but the state’s job growth rate continues to lag the national growth rate.
In fact, monthly employment in Virginia has grown at a slower pace since 2011 on a year-over-year basis than in the nation 86 percent of the time.
The reason: Part of it is the cuts in federal defense spending, and part of it is the more moderate growth of adding jobs in the state’s largest metropolitan area, Northern Virginia. 
From June 2018 to June 2019, employers in Virginia added a net total of 27,600 jobs, a 0.7% job growth rate that lagged the national job growth rate of 1.5%.
Defense cuts may explain part of the slower employment growth in Virginia since 2011.
Between 1990 and 2011, average annual employment growth in the state was relatively slower than in the nation 25 percent of the time. During three of those years (in 1991, 1994 and 1995), defense spending in the nation declined.
But Virginia is more dependent on defense spending than any other state, with defense spending making up 8.9% of its gross domestic product, compared with a national average of 1.7%, according to figures from the Defense Department’s Office of Economic Adjustment.
In fiscal year 2011, defense spending slowed considerably from prior years as the war in Afghanistan was winding down and then declined 17% from fiscal year 2011 through fiscal year 2015 because of sequestration related to the Budget Control Act of 2011. Defense spending rose by less than 1% in fiscal year 2016 and fiscal year 2017 and has since increased more than 5% a year over the past two fiscal years.
Another reason for the slower growth in the state is due to its largest metropolitan area, Northern Virginia. Some analysts have said “As goes Northern Virginia, so goes the state.”
Northern Virginia’s year-over-year employment growth was 1.1% in June 2019. That’s faster than the state, but slower than the national growth rate.
Annual employment figures dating to 1990 show a slowing trend.
From 1991 through 2018, employment in Northern Virginia grew 1.9 times faster than the nation, but much of this is attributable to the period from 1992 through 2011, when employment in Northern Virginia grew an average 2.9 times faster than the nation.
Since 2011, employment in Northern Virginia grew 12%, compared with 14% in the nation.
From a total jobs perspective, 652,000 of the 1.14 million jobs created in the state from 1990 through April 2019 were in Northern Virginia. That is 57% of the state’s jobs created over that time.
Yet since 2011, employment increased by 159,000 in Northern Virginia and 340,000 in the state, with only 47% of the gain coming from Northern Virginia.
With employment in Northern Virginia growing at a more moderate pace, it looks like the pace of employment growth in the state will continue to lag below the national average unless some of the other metro areas take up the slack.
This commentary originally appeared in the August 5 edition of The Richmond Times-Dispatch.
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VCU Study Jumps to Unsubstantiated Conclusions

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Richmond-area schools suspend black students at four times the rate of white students, a gap that exceeds the national average, a study by the Virginia Commonwealth University School of Education has found. The findings have been duly reported by the Richmond Times-Dispatch.
One in five black students in the region received an out-of-school suspension during the 2015-16 year compared to 5% of white students. Nationally, the numbers are closer to 15% and 5%, according to a study by the Metropolitan Educational Research Consortium (MERC), a research arm of the VCU educational school that gives special emphasis to “social justice, equity and diversity.”
“This is a long-standing problem with deeply rooted causes, and it’s going to take dedicated leadership and policy to resolve it,” the RTD quoted Genevieve Siegel-Hawley, a VCU education professor and one of the study’s authors, as saying.
To drive home the point, the RTD also quoted Richmond Public Schools Superintendent Jason Kamras: “We have a moral obligation to end racial inequity in school discipline — particularly here in the Richmond region given our history as the former capital of the Confederacy.
The study, “Understanding Racial Inequity in School Discipline Across the Richmond Region,” is typical of much of the academic scholarship purporting to find systemic “bias” in Virginia’s schools. Do the conclusions stand up under close examination? Are Virginia’s teachers and school administrators guilty of widespread prejudice, conscious, unconscious or otherwise? Or do the findings reflect the… shall we say… liberal/progressive biases of the researchers?
What the study says. Across the seven jurisdictions in the Richmond metropolitan area studied, 20% of black students were suspended, compared to 8% of Latino students and 5% of white students. Mattingly does not provide (perhaps because the study did not) the percentage of Asian students suspended. (If higher levels of Asian academic achievement are any indication, they were suspended at a rate even lower than whites.)
The suspension rates increased when students advanced from elementary school and into middle and high schools, with black students more than three times as likely to be suspended in middle school as in elementary school.
Here is the key finding: The black-white gap is even wider for “subjective” offenses such as defiance and disrespect than for “objective” infractions like vandalism. Writes Mattingly:
Black students in particular were more likely to be on the receiving end of suspensions for those subjective infractions, the report found, receiving three in four of them despite making up about one third of the region’s enrollment in the school year. “In general, racial disproportionality in out-of-school suspensions was more severe when it came to subjective infractions versus all infractions,” the report said.
The black-white gap was largest in Henrico County (28 percentage points) and in Chesterfield (25 percentage points).
In summary: Black students are suspended at rates considerably greater than their percentage of the student body, and the “gap” is greatest for “subjective” offenses. That gap is explainable by racial discrimination.
The yawning gap in the study. Unless Mattingly omitted the data, nowhere did the study address the issue of whether black students committed suspension-worthy infractions at a greater rate than Hispanics, whites and (non-persons for the purpose of the study) Asians.
It is widely acknowledged that black students are more likely to live in fatherless households, where discipline is harder to enforce, they are more likely to experience parental abuse and neglect, and they are more likely to live in neighborhoods where violence is pervasive. Black children are, in the therapeutic nomenclature of the day, more likely to suffer traumatic experiences that skew their emotional development, leading to disruptive behavior and requiring “trauma-informed therapy.” That is why a higher percentage of black students are classified as “disabled.”
It should surprise no one, even those adopting a liberal/progressive frame of reference, that black students would commit more disciplinary infractions than Hispanics, whites and Asians, and, as a consequence, would incur more disciplinary actions. Rather than reflecting discrimination by teachers and administrators, differential rates of suspension could reflect differential rates of early childhood trauma.
Mattingly’s article provides no indication that such an alternative hypothesis was considered. It appears that the VCU authors leaped to a conclusion of discrimination as the default explanation for the suspension gap.
What do teachers think? There is a body of evidence based upon teacher surveys that is relevant to the question of discrimination. Some of the evidence can be interpreted as supporting the VCU “discrimination” hypothesis; some evidence seems to contradict it.
Here is data from a recent Fordham Institute survey of black and white teachers in schools located in poor neighborhoods (where more than 75% of students were eligible for federally subsidized lunches.)

A quarter of white teachers and three-quarter of black teachers perceived that African-American students were, all things being equal, more likely than white students to suffer harsher punishment for an offense such as verbally disrespecting the teacher. This would seem to confirm the idea that at least some black students are treated more harshly on the basis of race.
(For purposes of brevity, I will leave aside the issue the degree to which teacher perceptions have been shaped by social-equity indoctrination by school administrations.)
Despite the concern that black students suffer harsher punishments, majorities of both black and white teachers believed that schools utilize out-of-school suspensions too little. (The margin in favor of more out-of-school suspensions, remarkably enough, was higher among black teachers.)
The Fordham survey results are consistent with a just-published PDK poll of teachers and the public. Significant majorities of public school teachers support zero-tolerance policies for certain categories of offenses, such as bringing a folding knife to school. A large majority also sees mediation/ counseling as a preferred alternative to suspensions for other types of offenses, although these were not enumerated. To say the least, there are complexities to teacher views that cannot be readily reduced to simple survey questions..
Of particular interest, the PDK poll highlighted a quote by “Jean,” a 60-year-old, mixed race high school teacher in suburban Delaware,” who undoubtedly expressed the view of many teachers.
School discipline is too lenient because of political correctness that has now invaded the schools, along with government intrusion into the public schools. The teacher has very little control regarding classroom discipline. It has become a huge problem for the teacher and the students in the room who are being cheated out of academic learning time. The fear factor for lawsuits, the cry for discrimination and political correctness is starting to erode the entire school climate in many buildings. The fear factor is huge and is playing a very large role in what can be done to control unruly students.
In other words, politically correct dogma corrupts the conversation about race in schools.
A corrupt reporting process? In explaining the black-white suspension gap in public schools, the VCU study assumes that the disparate meting out of punishments for “subjective” offenses reflects the underlying prejudices of teachers and administrators. But there are alternative explanations. Perhaps, under pressure from state and district officials to reduce the disparities in black-white punishments, school administrators and teachers are under-reporting offenses by black students.

As seen in the Fordham Institute graphic above, nearly half of teachers believe that the supposed decline in out-of-school suspensions can be attributed at least in part to the under-reporting of incidents, while three-quarters cite a higher tolerance for misbehavior. (Teachers also credit alternatives to out-of-school suspensions and improved student behavior.) An alternative view, which the VCU study did not explore, is the possibility that black students are more likely to engage in disrespectful and defiant behavior and that administrators are tolerating and/or underreporting that behavior in order to meet expectations of state and school district officials.
What reason might one cite to claim that black students are more defiant? I heard one possible explanation from a former teacher and middle-school principle, an African-American, over the weekend. He suggested that young black men are taught to “stand up for themselves.” Their upbringing may make them more confrontational with authority figures.
A related hypothesis is that young blacks feel they are the victims of prejudice and racism. They are bombarded with messages from every direction to that effect. The liberal/progressive orthodoxy prevalent in in much of the United States, and increasingly in Virginia, is built upon the supposition of omni-present racism. If some young blacks believe themselves to be victims of racial prejudice in the classroom (whether they are or not in reality), it should surprise no one that they react with greater defiance.
These hypotheses could explain much or all of the supposed racial gap in punishments. They are only hypotheses, however, and they remain as unproven as the discrimination hypothesis. However, no one is even exploring alternative explanations. Given the prevalence of politically correct dogma in academia and media, discrimination is the only explanation you are likely to see.
This commentary originally appeared in the August 8, 2019 edition of the online Bacon’s Rebellion.
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Repeal The Jones Act

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By any measure, the Jones Act has been a failure.” This conclusion comes from the Cato Institute study of the Jones Act. It claims, “Under its watch [Jones Act] the U.S. shipbuilding has atrophied, the [U.S.] shipping fleet has withered, and any contribution to the military’s sealift capability has been trivial at best.” Are we more secure?

The main argument for the Jones Act, which requires goods shipped between U.S. ports to be transported on ships that are built, owned, and operated by United States citizens or permanent residents, has been that the nation is more secure. Cato points out that when U.S. forces were sent to Saudi Arabia for operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm only 12.7% of U.S. military equipment was carried by Jones Act ships. ”Only one U.S.-flagged ship was Jones Act compliant.”

Cato asserts astoundingly that at least on two occasions “…the United States requested transport ships from the Soviet Union and was rejected both times.” During Desert Shield and Desert Storm the deputy commander of the U.S. transportation command indicated that without foreign flag vessels to assist the United States, “It would have taken us three more months to complete the sealift ourselves.”

During this military operation, supporters of the Jones Act crowed that a Jones Act vessel had supported both military operations. Apparently, it was the only ship to do so. Since the 2003 Iraq war, our Jones Act fleet has decreased from 151 ships to 99 ships.

Another reason the Jones Act is irrelevant is that during World War I and World War II, our soldiers were transported by ships. Today they are flown to their destinations by jets. So, the military reason for the Jones Act has been destroyed.

Politics gets in the way

Why has the Jones Act not been repealed you may ask? POLITICS!

The Jones Act hurts agriculture but no one in agriculture speaks up against the Jones Act. Hundreds of millions of Americans are hostage to politicians such as Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), as is Alaska’s powerful Republican Don Young. Republican Steve Scalise of Louisiana is also a powerful supporter because huge numbers of barges are built in his district.

No one should be surprised that these politicians receive political funds from a web of special interests. Puerto Rico’s and Hawaii’s economies are a disaster. This is due in large part to the Jones Act. “Among Jones Act supporters are U.S. shipbuilders, merchant mariners, various maritime unions, and those who actually believe the law is essential to national security. Meanwhile, there are no fewer than six federal agencies and 16 congressional committees with Jones Act enforcement and oversight authorities.”

As you can see, citizens of Puerto Rico and Hawaii suffer outrageous prices for food and supplies as a result of the Jones Act. In 2015 Cato claims trucks carried 11.5 billion tons of goods, but ships under the Jones Act carried only 1 billion tons of freight.

Thirty eight states and the District of Columbia are connected by navigable waters. Approximately 40% of the U.S. population lives in coastal counties which have ports. However, only a negligible 2% of goods and materials are involved in coastal shipping.

Therefore, as Cato claims, most goods travel on congested interstates by truck.

To show how crazy the Jones Act is “…airlines operating in Puerto Rico typically import jet fuel from foreign countries such as Venezuela rather than bring it in from Gulf Coast refineries. This practice is attributable to the difficulty of finding available Jones Act vessels to transport fuel in the first place, and the exorbitant cost of doing so when such vessels are found.”

President Trump and his administration need to end this monopoly which has burdened the U.S. economy for over 100 years.

This commentary originally appeared in the July 23, 2019 issue of Farm Futures.

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Sense and Nonsense on Climate Armageddon

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A good sense discussion on the Most Important Threat in Human History was provided July 14 in the Richmond Times-Dispatch, in a guest column from a retired University of Richmond biology professor. Few discussions of the climate change controversy have come closer to my personal views, but R. Dean Decker has that doctorate from North Carolina State so let him make the case. Read it in full here.
The nonsense appeared quickly with what I suspect will be one of many letters to the editor seeking to tear down his argument (and I suspect the man, but I hope the RTD will weed out those letters.) The letter accused him of “a disservice to science” and inspired me to give Decker’s column a slightly wider audience.
More nonsense appeared even earlier, this from the Man Who Won’t Be King, Charles Prince of Wales. “I am firmly of the view that the next 18 months will decide our ability to keep climate change to survivable levels and to restore nature to the equilibrium we need for our survival.” I ran across that in a post on one of my favorite websites on this issue, wattsupwiththat.com. Searching for a more direct source of the quote, I found that HRH has been issuing these Al Gore-like jeremiads for years.
Yet more nonsense in the July 19 RTD with this piece on the “hottest June on record.” At least reporters are careful now to add the “on record” disclaimer, given the Earth is 4.5 billion years old and efforts at worldwide measurements maybe a few decades old. Certainly, pre-satellite data is worthless for such comparisons.
So, to Decker, who is no “denier”, not at all. On the contrary, he does a fairly clear job of describing that “climate change” is a constant global process with innumerable causes and human activity is among those causes. Eight billion human beings striving to copy our American or European energy-guzzling lifestyle while tearing down trees and paving over green space will have an impact. But the underlying natural cycles involved are powerful and irreversible. Yes, we are in a warming period, but it has precedent in human history.
“So now what? No human effort will halt or reverse climate change. We must adapt to the coming changes by slowing the rate of change by whatever means possible. Reducing the demands on the earth’s carrying capacity by changing our lifestyles, switching to alternative energy sources and reducing the earth’s population among other options will help,” Decker wrote, continuing:
“Will any of these and other suggestions happen at a significant level? Probably not, even though much of the public thinks the politicians can pass legislation that will fix everything. Who is going to give up their cars, their electrical appliances, their pleasurable activities and all the things that make living what it is today in the developed parts of the world? In addition, people in the underdeveloped locations are not going to cease their efforts to achieve the lifestyles of the developed countries.”
Plenty of people will disagree with Decker’s advice to “slow the rate of change by whatever means possible,” and that’s where I might add some modification: Do what is reasonably likely to actually make a difference, without leaving our economy crippled. To me that does mean moving expeditiously (but rationally) to retire coal and build renewable generation where it make sense, and to encourage energy conservation in effective ways. Market forces are doing the job and government is just fouling it up.
One of the environmental speakers at a State Corporation Commission regulatory conference a few weeks back admitted that were the government to return to the Obama-era Clean Power Plan, the entire goal structure would need to change. Why? Because the United States is moving toward the old CO2 benchmarks anyway. As I noted at the time, they’ve won and just don’t want to admit it.
On a smaller scale that is my argument against Virginia joining the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative – the targeted carbon emissions are shrinking already, and will continue to, with no trading or tax required to get there. Some environmentalists don’t believe there is a point of diminishing or exhausted returns, but the Utopian zero emissions goals being pushed now are way beyond useful and economically disastrous.
Decker’s other recommendation is to reduce population. He is correct, world population growth and the resulting demand for lebensraum, energy, comfort and other resources are behind far more pressure on the Earth than just carbon emissions. The impact on the oceans may be the real threat. But the usual methods for rapid population drop involve war, famine and plague. No question, those would work. They seem to be missing from the Green New Deal public blueprint.
The climate alarmists are trying to stampede people, using the same tactics as the Twitterman in Washington. They have the same low opinion of voter intelligence, sadly with good reason. Many have the same goal – winning future elections. Voices like Decker’s rarely rise above the din but are worth listening to.
A version of this commentary originally appeared in the July 19 edition of the online Bacon’s Rebellion.

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An Education Where Students Have Skin in the Game

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The Cristo Rey Network, a chain of Catholic schools, has enrolled its first class of 105 students on the former campus of Benedictine High School in Richmond, creating an affordable private-school alternative for dozens of low-income black and Hispanic youth.
What makes Cristo Rey unique is the degree to which students and their families put skin in the game. To cover 60% of their $13,000-a-year tuition, students work one day per week in the Corporate Work Study Program, in which four students share a full-time, entry-level job with companies such as Dominion Energy, CoStar Group and Bon Secours. Local philanthropists cover 30% to 35% of the tuition, while families are expected to contribute between $20 and $40 a month.
The program helps students focus in the classroom because they have to work for their education, says Kathleen Powers, a Cristo Rey teacher told the Richmond Times-Dispatch. “This is their investment.”
The curriculum of the new Richmond school is geared to helping students catch up to grade level in English and math so they will be prepared to attend college when they graduate. At other Cristo Rey schools, nine in 10 students enroll in college — a rate nearly 30 percentage points higher than for most low-income high school students.
The RTD doesn’t discuss it, but it appears from the photographs accompanying the article that students appear to adhere to a strict dress code. Also, I would expect that Cristo Rey schools offer greater order in the classroom than inner city schools. But school discipline is not enforced by sadistic nuns rapping students on the knuckles. The national Cristo Rey website states:
We believe that to create a positive learning environment, it is important to have a community built upon trust. Adults in our community work hard to establish high trust relationships with students that follow appropriate boundaries and set high expectations.
The encouragement and recognition given to positive behavior begets an environment that focuses on learning the appropriate behavior rather than shame and punishment … All behavior in the school should help to establish and maintain an environment within the school that fosters maximum learning and mutual respect. Students are expected to be respectful of the learning process and to take responsibility for their own learning. Students struggling to meet this expectation are sometimes required to complete retraining sessions during Structured Study classes.
Bacon’s bottom line: Cristo Rey is a welcome development for the Richmond metropolitan area. The school will provide an escape hatch for more than 100 students who would otherwise be consigned to under-performing schools in Richmond, Petersburg and neighboring localities. The school sets high expectations, and by asking students and families to contribute to tuition, students have a greater appreciation of the opportunity they are given. Cristo Rey students are expected to work with greater diligence and intensity than their peers in public schools. They will learn the value of the work ethic. I would not be surprised if many Cristo Rey graduates advance farther in life than pampered, peers in more affluent families.
The Richmond and Petersburg school systems, beset by continuing scandals, seem incapable of reforming themselves. Many public school administrators resent private schools like Cristo Rey that “skim the cream” of the student body, siphoning off more motivated students more likely to succeed. But the Criso Rey students and their families are surely grateful for the opportunity break free of the cycle of poverty.
This commentary originally appeared in the July 22 issue of the online Bacon’s Rebellion.
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