Jefferson Policy Journal

You know Virginia has changed when being labeled a socialist by your opponent is less damaging than being labeled a Republican.
Republican candidates all across the commonwealth sought to link their opponents with the national Democrats running for president on platforms of economic wealth transfer and nationalized health care. In the key suburban districts, which were once the GOP base, and in a massive turnout for a ballot with no statewide race, voters were unmoved. “We’ll take some of that here, too,” they seemed to say.
It was a Republican message tailor-made to turn out their opponents in droves.
Contrast that with the following statement issued by Speaker (for two more months) Kirk Cox of Colonial Heights, who was returned by his court-drawn district despite a nationwide effort to destroy him:
“I am deeply proud of what the House of Delegates has accomplished during the last two decades. We balanced the budget, protected our AAA bond-rating through a major recession, passed four teacher pay raises in six years, froze college tuition, made major reforms to our transportation system, secured our state’s pension system for the future, and guided Virginia to the nation’s top state for business.”
When did that clear statement of Republican accomplishment get communicated? Late Tuesday night as the results were showing an apparent six-seat gain for the Democrats in the House. In other words, after the smoke had cleared. That was not the message being emphasized as the nasty television and social media advertisements proliferated pre-election.
Even more obviously lacking was any message about what a refreshed Republican majority would do next. There was nothing as clear and magnetic as “No Car Tax” or “Bob’s for Jobs,” which elected the last two Republican governors. Voters on November 5 knew what Democrats would do with power but had no clue what Republicans would do.
Note the analysis so far has not even mentioned the greatest Democratic turnout generator in history, President Donald J. Trump. Given the results obtained by Republicans seeking to stay out of his shadow, his many partisans will say with some justification that was a mistake. Perhaps more should have proudly worn their MAGA hats on Election Day, as did one (one!) voter I saw in my Richmond City precinct.
None of the House seats which flipped to Democrats in the 2017 post-Trump wave election flipped back this year. Winning at least a few of those back was crucial to any strategy to maintain Republican control, and the Democrats held them all. Even where the 2017 winners departed to run for the Senate, new Democrats held the seats. Instead, a few more marginal seats moved to the Democrats.
The Senate GOP ran a purely defensive election, seriously challenging no incumbent Democrats. In the end, it retained 19 seats and some functional leverage in the Senate. The two seats it lost were seats it barely won in 2015, and all knew they were uphill. It staved off a worse outcome. The House Republicans ventured more and lost more.
A strategic move which succeeded wildly was the redrawn House of Delegates map, clearly a net gain for Democrats overall. When opportunity beckoned, Democrats ignored their previous support for the 2011 district plan, blessed by a Democratic Department of Justice, and united in denouncing it as racist. Several of the districts changed sides just as the new plan ordained.
Yes, an obscene amount of money was spent, much of it flowing in from liberal and union special interests outside of the commonwealth. But many of the failed Republican campaigns also had the largest budgets they have ever seen. If their national dollars didn’t match up, why not? What the Democrats really had, and the Republicans really lacked, was a message, which also motivates donors. All the money in the world cannot invent a positive reason for voters to show up.
The state Senate races in the Richmond region were instructive. Democrats targeted GOP senators Siobhan Dunnavant and Glen Sturtevant for defeat, largely on the strength of growing Democratic margins in Henrico County. To add to their chances, a major effort sought to tie them both to Chesterfield Republican Senator Amanda Chase, with her almost Trumpian gift for self-inflicted damage. Dunnavant was also directly attacked for supporting Trump. (See above.)
Ultimately Dunnavant saved her campaign by looking straight into the camera and telling voters about all the healthcare bills she had sponsored in one term that were signed by two Democratic governors. In a health care election, it’s an advantage to be a recognized and liked provider.
Sturtevant’s final message, on the other hand, was a virtual me-too of the main Democratic themes, promising support for additional gun restrictions, health insurance mandates and teacher pay. A final mailer attacking his opponent for her faith didn’t sit well with many voters. His many references to his own “independence” from partisan considerations irritated his base.
Message. This game is all about message. Tell the voters what you have done, what you will do next, and why it matters. In some districts the partisan outcome is not in doubt, but in competitive seats, message matters most.
Stephen Haner is Senior Fellow for State and Local Tax Policy at the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy.

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Virginia is a blue state now. Not only do Democrats occupy all statewide elected positions — two U.S. senators, governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general — with yesterday’s election, they control both houses of the General Assembly.
Republicans got their booties kicked. And the butt-stomping is not likely to subside. The Dems will control the next redistricting, which will cement their dominance of the legislature. Auguring well for the blue team in the future, the fastest-growing region of the state, Northern Virginia, now is pure blue with bits of purple on the exurban fringe. By contrast, Republican strongholds in rural Virginia have shrinking or stagnant populations. Also favoring Democrats in the long run is the increasing percentage of racial/ethnic minorities in the state and the declining percentage of whites.
Republicans need to re-define who they are and what they stand for, or they will become a permanent minority. News reports say that dislike of Donald Trump drove Democratic voter turnout, but the Blue Tide is much broader and deeper than voter animus of one man. Take Trump out of the equation after the 2020 election, and Virginia Republicans still have a huge problem.
Can the Republicans re-calibrate? I certainly hope so, because I’m terrified of the Democratic Party agenda of $15 minimum wage, spiking the right-to-work law, a damn-the-torpedoes-full-speed-ahead rush to a 100% renewable electric grid, spending and taxing, taxing and spending, and injecting its grievance-and-victimhood agenda into the consideration of every issue. But Republican priorities on culture war issues — guns, abortion, transgenders — are not winning issues statewide. As long as Republicans remain captive to its rural/small-town base, I don’t see how it can reinvent itself.
What does a rejuvenated Republican Party look like? (Or, if the GOP is incapable of reinventing itself, what does a successor party look like?)
First, it would take the culture-war issues off the table. Recognizing that reality is complex and messy and that sound-bite solutions usually have unintended consequences, it would stake out the middle ground against the extremists of both sides. No more trans-vaginal ultrasounds. But no aborting babies who have reached the birth canal. No right to carry semi-automatic weapons in public restaurants. But no free sex-change surgery for seven-year-olds confused about their gender identity. In other words, don’t do crazy.
Then the rejuvenated GOP (or its successor) should position itself as the Opportunity Party, creating economic opportunity for all Virginians of whatever racial, ethnic, or socioeconomic stripe.
In the economic sphere, that means identifying with and promoting job creation, entrepreneurship and small business. It means fighting the credentialism in which an increasing share of all jobs require a four-year college degree. It means improving the effectiveness of our public schools where we can, and creating alternatives (charter schools, vouchers, home schooling) where we can’t. It means shaking up the ossified structure of public colleges and universities to make them more affordable and accessible.
A rejuvenated GOP would articulate win-win approaches to health care, housing, transportation, and the environment.
Health care — Instead of expanding tax-and-spend entitlements, focus on boosting the productivity and quality of Virginia’s health care system. A more productive and efficient system brings down costs for everyone. Better medical outcomes benefits everyone.
Housing — The root cause of the affordability crisis and the eviction crisis is the failure of the home building sector to increase the supply of housing to meet rising demand. Bring supply and demand back into balance by reforming local zoning codes and comprehensive plans.
Transportation — Scrap the idea of free, convenient transportation as an entitlement. Restructure the transportation system along user-pays principles. Acknowledge the intimate link between transportation and land use. And figure out how to take advantage of the Mobility-as-a-Service revolution.
Environment — Move toward a 100% renewable electric grid as expeditiously as possible while balancing the goals of sustainability, cost, and reliability. The globe won’t heat up any faster if, by waiting for new technologies to emerge, we take five or ten years longer to reach our goal.
Size and scope of government — Contest the idea that government is the solution to every perceived societal ill. Embrace the idea that government should focus on a few core responsibilities and do them really well. Keep taxes low. Well, they’re not low — keep them moderate. Don’t become New Jersey. Celebrate new for-profit and non-profit business models for helping the poor.
Obviously, those are high-level themes. Republicans (or their successors) need to do the hard work of filling in the details. It won’t be easy. But do it they must, or Virginia will become New Jersey.
A version of this commentary originally appeared in the November 6 edition of the online Bacon’s Rebellion blog.
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In the Virginia General Assembly elections held Tuesday, President Donald Trump fueled the Democratic takeover of both the House of Delegates and State Senate.
From our friends over at Wikipedia on the definition of fire:
“Fires start when a flammable or a combustible material, in combination with a sufficient quantity of an oxidizer such as oxygen gas or another oxygen-rich compound (though non-oxygen oxidizers exist), is exposed to a source of heat or ambient temperature above the flash point for the fuel/oxidizer mix, and is able to sustain a rate of rapid oxidation that produces a chain reaction. This is commonly called the fire tetrahedron.”
Basically, fire needs a flashpoint to start. Then the fire needs more fuel and oxygen to keep burning. But first, combustible material must be present.
From The Washington Post:
“But singling out Trump as the reason for Republican failures in 2019 “is too easy,” said Mark Rozell, a George Mason University professor of public policy. Rather, he said, Virginia’s GOP over the past decade has gravitated toward the right on social issues and alienated moderate voters.”
Rozell suggests that Virginia Republicans had piled up combustible fuel just waiting for a spark. That’s not an unfair observation. Was that enough to flip both chambers though?
Further analysis on this historic election will be done, but let’s not look past the “too easy” flashpoint of President Trump who routinely, almost daily, throws more fuel on a hot burning fire while at the same time fanning the Democratic flames.
Did the Virginia GOP make mistakes? Sure.
Name a governing majority that hasn’t.
But take nothing away from the Democrats in Virginia.
They are very, very good at what they do. Democrats took full advantage of the opportunity presented to them.
News outlets have put in their reporting that this is the first time since the early 90s that the Democrats will control the Executive Branch and the two legislative chambers.
Let’s go there.
In 1992, Bill Clinton was elected president with 43% of the vote nationally but won only 40% of the vote here in Virginia.
A year later, Democratic nominee for governor, Mary Sue Terry got slightly under 41% to Republican George Allen’s 58%.
Quick aside – Trump got 44.4% in 2016, while Ed Gillespie got 44.8% in 2017. Very similar to Clinton and Terry in that Gillespie and Terry both lost badly but improved by less than 1 point from previous year.
The GOP was fired up in 1993 like the Democrats were in 2017. Lots of issues were dry kindling, but Clinton overreach on healthcare (HillaryCare) lit the pile.
After the 1994 Republican takeover of Congress, President Clinton declared “the era of big government was over” in his 1996 State of the Union Address.
Clinton took away enough Republican fuel including signing a welfare reform bill and was re-elected that November.
During the Clinton and Governors Allen/Gilmore years of 1994-2000, the Democrats saw their House of Delegates majority go from 58 to a Republican takeover after the elections of 1999.
Redistricting boosted the GOP House advantage to 64 + 2 conservative Independents after the 2001 elections in which Democrats Mark Warner and Tim Kaine won Governor and Lt. Governor respectively. Jerry Kilgore became Attorney General as a Republican at the same time.
That election occurred less than two months after 9/11 and ushered in strong bipartisan sentiments from the electorate.
The presidency of George Bush and the Iraq War fueled a lot of Democratic fire during the governorships of Warner and Kaine. GOP membership in the House fell from a high of 66 to just 56 during the last cycle of President Bush.
Barack Obama’s historic election as president in 2008 refueled the Republicans back up to 61 seats in the House and Bob McDonnell’s landslide 58-41 win in 2009. Redistricting bumped those numbers up even higher to 68 as the Affordable Care Act added more fuel and oxygen to the GOP fire.
During the governorship of Democrat Terry McAuliffe (2014-2018), the Democrats only got to 34 seats in the Virginia House with Obama in the White House.
Throughout this post-Cold War time period, the State Senate went to a 20-20 tie with the 1995 elections and then effective Republican control in 1997 when Republican John Hager became Lieutenant Governor. In the last cycle of the Clinton Administration, the Democrats lost outright control of the Senate 19-21 in 1999.
The first State Senate election of the Bush presidency occurred in 2003 and after redistricting. This pushed the GOP advantage in the Senate to 23-17. However, the General Assembly elections in 2007, during the last cycle of President Bush, saw the Senate flip back to blue 22-18 as House Democrats also climbed seats to 44 seats up 10 from 2001.
The first State Senate election in Virginia under President Obama saw a 20-20 tie in 2011 and then outright control at 21-19 for the GOP in the last Obama cycle in 2015.

2016. Donald Trump. Enter stage right.

Dramatic upset. Flashpoint for Democrats. BOOM.
Then came the Virginia elections of 2017 for the three statewide offices and the House of Delegates.
Democrats swept the top three statewide offices and gained 15, and very nearly 16, seats in the House.
The 2019 elections Tuesday occurred in the second half of Trump’s first term and fueled the fire of Democrats leading to an additional 6 seat pick up in the House and a 2 seat pick up in the Senate for outright control of both chambers.
To Rozell’s point of Republican missteps along the way -Yes, there were mistakes.
There always are. And that is fuel.
The flashpoint which lit that fuel here in Virginia was the election of Donald Trump who brought a LOT of his own fuel. Trump continues to add more of it as well as oxygen to keep the fire burning very hot for Democrats. Very, very hot.
Reports are that the Democrats are trying to learn from these lessons of history by planning out how they can govern and get re-elected regardless of the party in the White House.
As a history major and former history teacher, I always applaud those who try to learn from the past.
The question for the new Virginia majority will be how do they keep both fuel and oxygen away from the Republicans’ pilot light and while keeping Democrats fired up if Trump loses to one of their own just 362 days from today.
That’s a hard balance for a party to game out with an economy historically overdue for a recession, a yield curve inverted since August, and a political base expecting results consistent with what is being sold by their national candidates.
In politics, fires are required for success. Fires are especially hard to control when you’re in control of neither the fuel nor the oxygen.
Just ask Virginia Republicans who are hoping that the suburban voters that continue to burn white hot against Trump and also not becoming permanently blue.
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