How Not to Turn Enemies into Friends

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global warming skepticsDoes Governor Terry McAuliffe deliberately misrepresent what skeptics of the prevailing Global Warming Orthodoxy think, or does he simply repeat what others have said about what skeptics supposedly believe? Either way, we have a problem. Here’s what he said yesterday before signing an executive order to convene a work group to deliver recommendations for carbon reductions:
Now, some of our legislators have trouble keeping up with the times on this topic. They don’t believe the overwhelming science supporting climate change.
Now, I can’t speak for Virginia’s legislators, but I can speak as a skeptic of Global Warming Orthodoxy, and I don’t know of a single reasonably informed observer who doesn’t believe in “climate change.” Skeptics believe that climate is dynamic, and that it has changed throughout human history. Indeed, they emphasize the cyclical nature of climate, as seen in the alternation between the Roman Warm Period, the Medieval Warm Period, and the modern era with cooler periods. The question is not whether “climate change” exists but what role human activity plays in causing climate change. As even the most ardent advocates of anthropogenic (human-caused) climate change will acknowledge, it is difficult to tease out the human impact from natural climate variability.
Climate skeptics do understand that, all other things being equal, an increased percentage of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere will warm the planet. The question is how much will it increase warming? The computer models predicting steep temperature increases over the 21st century assume the existence of feedback loops in which more CO2 increases temperatures, which increases the evaporation of water (another greenhouse gas), which increases temperatures even more. How that process works still remains an object of scientific inquiry. An unresolved question is the extent to which water in the atmosphere leads to more cloud formation, which reflects sunlight, which cools the planet and counteracts the presence of greenhouse gases to some degree. For the most part, computer models have significantly over-stated warming compared to the historical record. Yes, global temperatures have risen, and, yes, this is the hottest decade since humans have been measuring global temperatures (not “in human history,” as Secretary of State John Kerry recently mis-spoke) but it is not as hot as the computer models of twenty years ago said it would be.
Once we move from the domain of “how fast are temperatures rising and what role do humans play” to “what do we do about it?”, we depart the realm of science and enter that of philosophy and public policy. The Global Warming Orthodoxy reaches far beyond science. It proclaims that the only proper response to warming temperatures is to re-engineer the world’s energy economy in order to reduce CO2 emissions. Even among environmentalists, there is disagreement how to go about this. While championing efforts to combat global warming, the Obama administration concedes that there is a legitimate role for natural gas as a transition fuel to renewable fuel sources, and for nuclear power as a source of base-line electric generation. Many Virginia environmentalists are hostile to both natural gas and nuclear, preferring all new electricity production be renewable. Reasonable people can debate the pros and cons of an all-renewable energy grid, but this is not a debate about “science,” much less about “settled science.” It is a debate about technology, economics, and the trade-offs between electric rates, grid reliability and clean fuels.
There appears to be a widespread prejudice that global warming skeptics (and by that, I mean skeptics of the Global Warming Orthodoxy) are anti-scientific knuckle draggers. In era of polarized politics, I suppose there is no dispelling that notion. But the skeptics themselves know differently. And McAuliffe, by suggesting those who disagree with him “haven’t kept up” with scientific thinking belittles their intellect and, thereby, diminishes any chance of winning cooperation with his agenda.
(This article first ran in Bacon’s Rebellion on June 29, 2016)
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Court Rules Soil is a Pollutant!

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Danger!Judge Kimberly Mueller on June 10, 2016 in the U.S. Eastern District Court of California found that John Duarte, a nursery operator and wheat farmer, plowed wetlands, four to six inches deep, and therefore violated the Clean Water Act (CWA).
The Judge found Mr. Duarte, by chiseling a pasture, discharged fill material into a water (vernal pool) of the United States. Get this! The Court wrote “In sum, soil is a pollutant. And here, plaintiffs instructed [a contractor] to till and loosen soil on the property.”
This plowing, according to the Court, caused “…the material in this case soil, to move horizontally, creating furrows and ridges.” You will not believe this.
The Court wrote, “This movement of the soil resulted in its being redeposited into waters of the United States at least in areas of the wetlands as delineated…” In sum, the Judge found that chiseling no more than a few inches of soil constituted an addition of a pollutant to a wetland.
Stunning!
The Court also evaluated whether the tractor and soil chisel plow were point sources under the CWA. The Court cited cases which found that bulldozers, backhoes, graders, tractors pulling discs and rippers can be point sources under the CWA.
The Court describes Mr. Duarte’s equipment as having 7 shanks with 24-inch spacing and each shank was 36 inches long. The Court wrote, “The equipment loosened and moved the soil horizontally, pulling the dirt out of the wetlands [vernal pools] and redepositing it there as well.”
Vernal pools are described as meeting all three wetland parameters. They are dry the majority of time. As a result, the Court found that the equipment used to aerate the soil was a point source under the CWA.
Under the CWA there must be a discharge of a pollutant to navigable waters from a point source. Again, it is believed that to have a discharge of a pollutant, there must be an addition of the pollutant to the navigable waters. It is also believed that farming operations allegedly have an exemption under the CWA which exempts certain activities of farming and ranching from CWA permitting requirements. (The Court seems unaware that farming is considered a nonpoint source covered by section 319 of the CWA)
The CWA regulations defines farming and declares “Normal farming…activities such as plowing, seeding, cultivating, minor drainage and harvesting for the production of food, fiber and forest products,…” are not activities which are prohibited or regulated under the CWA. Plowing is also defined by EPA as meaning “…all forms of primary tillage, including moldboard, chisel or wide-blade plowing, discing, harrowing and similar physical means utilized on farm, forest or ranchland for the breaking up, cutting, turning over, or stirring of soil to prepare it for the planting of crops.”
The Court found that Mr. Duarte’s activities did not meet the exemption EPA has provided for farming. The Court believed that the land being aerated by Mr. Duarte had not been land used for farming activities but for the grazing of animals. (Grazing or pasturing of animals apparently is not an agricultural activity!) The Court believed the farming operation which could be exempted had ceased to operate as a farm, and that Mr. Duarte was engaging in new agricultural activities.
Legal complications
The case is extremely complicated from a legal standpoint where Mr. Duarte sued the Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) claiming the Corps had violated his 5th Amendment right to due process and his 1st Amendment right against retaliatory prosecution. According to the opinion, there were two rounds of motions to dismiss significant evidentiary objections and objections over what constituted hearsay. The U.S. Department of Justice filed a counterclaim against Mr. Duarte using the CWA and won.
Basically the case says plowing can be a polluting activity particularly in areas that can be identified as vernal pools, vernal swales, seasonal wetlands, seasonal swales and areas where there may be intermittent and ephemeral drainages.
Mr. Duarte had purchased the land in order to plant winter wheat. He had been very careful in hiring consultants to identify any wetlands. Apparently what he did was insufficient according to Judge Mueller, an Obama appointee, who served as a City Councilwoman in Sacramento. In addition she has worked as a U.S. Magistrate Judge but appears to have no experience in agriculture. It shows!  It is indeed surprising that an attempt to grow wheat on approximately 450 acres results in the violation of the CWA.
(This article first ran in Farm Futures on June 23, 2016)
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Has Global Warming Made Rainstorms More Intense?

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rainDROP-02In a recent article about global warming adorned with pictures of flooding and drought, New York Times environmental journalist Justin Gillis wrote:

A warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor, and an intensification of rainstorms was one of the fundamental predictions made by climate scientists decades ago as a consequence of human emissions. That prediction has come to pass, with the rains growing more intense across every region of the United States, but especially so in the East.

Gillis did not provide a source, timeframe, or data to support these assertions, so Just Facts contacted him to request this information. He replied by pointing to a 2013 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and to the Obama administration’s National Climate Assessment (NCA).
The IPCC’s internal documents show that it has engaged in deceitful actions to exaggerate global warming, which suggests that its findings should not be uncritically accepted. However, even when taking this IPCC report at face value, it does not prove Gillis’ claim. Instead, it states that the evidence for changes in rainfall intensity is equivocal and varying:

Since 1951 there have been statistically significant increases in the number of heavy precipitation events (e.g., above the 95th percentile) in more regions than there have been statistically significant decreases, but there are strong regional and sub-regional variations in the trends. In particular, many regions present statistically non-significant or negative trends, and, where seasonal changes have been assessed, there are also variations between seasons (e.g., more consistent trends in winter than in summer in Europe).

Looking judiciously at these IPCC findings, the evidence becomes even murkier. This is because apparent changes in rainfall intensity sometimes vanish when examining longer timeframes that better account for natural variations. For example, in 2015, the International Journal of Climatology published a paper about extreme rainfall in England and Wales that revealed: “Contrary to previous results based on shorter periods, no significant trends of the most intense categories are found between 1931 and 2014.”
A similar situation exists with average rainfall, which differs from rainfall intensity in that it measures total rainfall instead of the portion of rain that occurs in heavy downpours. In 2015, the Journal of Hydrology published a study of “over 1½ million monthly precipitation totals observed at 1000 stations in 114 countries.” The study found:

  • “No significant global precipitation change from 1850 to present.”
  • “Many stations experienced increased precipitation during one period but decreased precipitation during another time period.”
  • Previous major studies of rainfall patterns analyzed “a few decades of data” and produced “conflicting” outcomes, which is “not entirely surprising given that precipitation varies considerably over time scales of decades.”

These facts all drive home the importance of looking at the broadest possible range of evidence instead of cherry picking selected time periods or areas. Flouting this tenet of honest science, Gillis focused on the United States without mentioning that it has the strongest rainfall intensity trends on the planet. According to the IPCC, central North America (i.e., the U.S.) has “the overall most consistent trends towards heavier precipitation” of any region in the world.
Since rainfall trends vary widely by area, and since the United States contains only 1.9% of the world’s surface area, Gillis’ statement about rainfall in the U.S. amounts to an anecdote. Yet even in this “worst case” example, the feared effect of greater flooding was not confirmed by a rigorous study of U.S. flood trends published in Hydrological Sciences Journal.
To conduct this study, scientists analyzed data from 200 water gauges with records extending from 85 to 127 years ago. To eliminate the effects of land development, the data was gathered from gauges located on streams far from man-made structures like reservoirs and parking lots. The study found “no strong empirical evidence” for increased flood magnitudes across any of the four major regions of the United States. In one of these regions (the Southwest), the study actually found a decrease in flooding, and in another region (the Northeast), the study found results that are “suggestive” of increased flooding but not statistically significant.
Nonetheless, Gillis’ New York Times article and the Obama administration’s NCA displayed images of floods as if they were caused by extreme rainfall from global warming. The NCA also stated, “There has also been an increase in flooding events in the Midwest and Northeast where the largest increases in heavy rain amounts have occurred.”
The source that the NCA cites for that claim, a 2013 paper in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, provides no proof that more intense rain has increased flooding anywhere in the United States, much less any evidence that the rain was caused by global warming. With reference to a few areas of increased flooding, the paper notes that “land management practices” and “oscillatory behavior at a time scale on the order of a century” may be contributing factors. With regard to the East, which is the area with the greatest rise in rainfall intensity, the paper notes:

Days with heavy precipitation have been increasing significantly across the eastern United States, particularly in New England (Karl et al. 2009; Kunkel et al. 2013). Interestingly, this trend is not strongly related to changes in river flooding.

In spite of these facts, when the Obama administration released its NCA in 2014, the New York Times published an article entitled “U.S. Climate Has Already Changed, Study Finds, Citing Heat and Floods.” This piece was also authored by Gillis, and he wrote that “in recent years, sudden intense rains have caused extensive damage.” He then listed three instances of floods with the clear implication that these events were caused by global warming.
The New York Times claims to abide by “Standards and Ethics” that require its staff to tell “the complete, unvarnished truth as best we can learn it.” These standards also declare that “the journalism we practice daily must be beyond reproach,” and the organization has “an ethical responsibility to correct all its factual errors, large and small.” More than a week has passed since Just Facts sent Gillis most of the information above, and the Times has not issued a correction.
A growing number of environmental advocates, journalists, and scientists have misrepresented evidence concerning the effects of global warming. This is typically done in conjunction with efforts to hinder people from using sources of energy that produce more greenhouse gases and toxic pollutants. However, these energy sources generally have lower costs than other forms of energy, and inexpensive energy is essential for public health and economic progress, particularly for the world’s poorest people. Hence, there is a continual debate over the pros and cons of various forms of energy.
(This article first ran in Just Facts on February 4, 2016)
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Save Virginia’s Collateral Source Rule

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thumbs_2-car-crash-1You’re driving south on Interstate 95 when you are suddenly rear-ended by a drunk driver. Your hospital bills will be high, your new car is totaled and it will be many months before you can return to work.  But when you sue the drunk driver for damages, he says he owes you nothing because you had health insurance, which covered your hospital bills, you were prudent enough to have collision insurance on your car and you also had disability insurance to pay you for the time lost from work.
For over two hundred years we have had a legal principle called the “Collateral Source Rule,” which prevented someone like the drunk driver from getting off scot-free just because the injured party was cautious enough to have insurance. But that Rule is under serious threat in Virginia.
The Collateral Source Rule is part of the ancient judge-made Common Law that the earliest colonists brought here from England.  The U.S. Supreme Court specifically recognized it at least as early as 1854.
Under the Collateral Source Rule, a wrongdoer, who the law sometimes calls a “tortfeasor,” is responsible for compensating the injured party for all the injuries and property damage he causes.  This remains so regardless of whether or not the injured party has insurance for his loss or whether his family, friends or employer help him to recover from the loss he has incurred. All these other sources, insurance, family, friends, an employer, are called “collateral sources” because they are not related to the wrongdoer; and the wrongdoer is not supposed to get any credit for any compensation or other help they may have provided.
The reasoning supporting the Rule is sometimes described like this: the defendant, whose negligence has injured another, owes to such other full compensation for the injuries he has inflicted and the payment for those injuries from a collateral source cannot relieve the defendant of his obligation. The wrongdoer cannot reap the benefit of an insurance policy for which he has not paid.
The Collateral Source Rule thereby serves to protect a fundamental principle in the law, which is that one who commits a wrongful act is responsible for all the damage caused by that act. That principle is essential to assure that the injured party is made whole financially for the loss caused by the wrongful act. It also protects society by discouraging wrongful acts by making sure that, one way or another, the guilty party will pay for them.  The Collateral Source Rule is also a lynch pin of consumer protection because it prevents companies from avoiding responsibility for the harm caused by defective products simply because the consumer that got hurt had insurance.
In Virginia, the Rule is both a rule of evidence, that is, whether you have insurance is not supposed to be admitted in evidence in your suit against the wrongdoer, and a rule of damages. This means that the compensation to which you are entitled is not reduced by anything your insurance company may have paid you.
Perhaps, some people might think that allowing the injured party to have his hospital bills paid by his health insurance carrier and then recovering for the injury from the wrongdoer was a kind of windfall or double recovery for the injured party.  But our Virginia courts, as well as those elsewhere, have rejected that notion.  For example, in a 2000 case called Acuar v. Letourneau, the Virginia Supreme Court said: “To the extent that such a result provides a windfall to the injured party, we have previously recognized that consequence and concluded that the victim of the wrong rather than the wrongdoer should receive the windfall.”
But the Collateral Source Rule is under heavy attack from “ATRA,” American Tort Reform Association, a group of chemical, tobacco, drug and insurance companies, who would like to save themselves some money. Flying under the flags of “tort reform” and improving public policy, members of this self-serving special interest group would simply like to be relieved of their current financial responsibility for harm caused by defective products. Joining them are defense lawyers who service clients who would also like not to have to pay for the injuries they cause.
In a recent 2014 case from neighboring West Virginia, called Kenney v. Liston, a drunk driver seriously argued that he should not be financially responsible for injuries he caused because the injured party had health insurance that paid the medical bills and that the drunk driver should also get the benefit of the reduced costs the health insurance company had negotiated with various health care providers.
Unfortunately, such attacks on the Collateral Source Rule are not uncommon and have gained some ground here in Virginia.  In a 1988 case called Schickling v. Aspinall, our Supreme Court went way out of its way to call the Collateral Source Rule into question. In a footnote to its opinion it said that, “arguably,” the balance is upset and the logic underlying the Collateral Source rule “is defeated when the wrongdoer is insulated by insurance from liability for his wrong and the plaintiff’s insurer is entitled, by way of subrogation, to the plaintiff’s right of recovery against the tortfeasor.” What this means is that, perhaps, the Collateral Source Rule prohibiting the wrongdoer from getting credit for the injured party’s insurance should not apply where the wrongdoer is also insured and the injured party’s insurance company has the right to be “subrogated,” paid back, for anything it has laid out for the injury.
The footnote is highly unusual because courts are not supposed to speculate, but only to keep their opinions narrowly focused on the case they are deciding. It’s also oddly out of touch with reality because, with the exception of health insurance, almost all insurance companies are always “subrogated,” entitled to be reimbursed for the payments they have made to their insureds from the insureds’ recovery from the wrongdoer. So, the possible exception that the Court was thinking about would actually occupy a huge amount of Collateral Source Rule territory.
Ignoring the principle of judicial restraint, manufactured entirely out of whole cloth and apropos of nothing, our Court has already wondered aloud whether the Collateral Source Rule should apply when an injured party’s insurance policy contains a subrogation clause, which almost all insurance policies, except health insurance policies, do.
Fortunately, many courts have rejected the ATRA-led invitation to abrogate the Collateral Source Rule and relieve wrongdoers of their responsibility to compensate injured victims. Addressing the very issue raised by our Supreme Court as to whether the rule applies if the injured party’s insurance policy has a subrogation clause, Oklahoma, in its Dippel v. Hunt case says, “Actually when the smoke of controversy clears away much can be said for the notion that it is really none of the tortfeasor’s concern what rights might exist between the tortfeasor’s victim and the latter’s own insurance carrier.”
Kansas, in its Southard v. Lira case, says that the Collateral Source Rule is “not affected by the fact that the insurer is entitled to be subrogated to the rights of the insured, as against the tortfeasor, or to recover back from him the amount he recovers.” Kentucky, in its Schwartz v. Hasty case, similarly says that “any agreements concerning subrogation rights between the insured and insurer are of no consequence or concern of the tortfeasor except to avoid his subjection to double recovery exceeding the amount of tort damages.”
It can only be hoped that when an appropriate case reaches the Virginia Supreme Court it will join Oklahoma, Kansas and Kentucky in holding that the Collateral Source Rule continues to apply regardless of what’s in the injured party’s insurance policy and reject ATRA’s efforts to abrogate the Rule, which has provided just compensation to injured parties and enforced responsibility against wrongdoers since the founding of our Republic.

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Can Atlanta’s East Lake Experiment Work in Virginia?

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drew_charter_schoolIt is axiomatic among social scientists that concentrating poor people in public housing projects accentuates the social pathologies that make poverty self-perpetuating and unbearable. The oft-touted solution is to create more mixed-income neighborhoods that de-concentrate poverty. Presumably, the presence of working- and middle-class households people would moderate the anti-social behavior of the poor. There’s just one problem: While the poor perceive mixed-income neighborhoods as beneficial, the non-poor do not. Typically, the non-poor flee poor neighborhoods associated with crime, poor schools and disorderly behavior.
How, then, does one develop mixed-use neighborhoods? The answer, according to Carol R. Naughton, president of the not-for-profit Purpose Built Communities: The developer needs to partner with allies who can provide amenities — grocery stores, recreational amenities, and above all else good schools — that make a neighborhood attractive to the non-poor.
“Poverty and place are tied together,” said Naughton Tuesday when addressing the Richmond chapter of the Urban Land Institute. Neighborhoods of concentrated poverty are “swamps” that breed inter-generational poverty that children can’t escape from. Changing the “place” can change the dynamic of poverty.
Naughton came to the view that developers can make a difference when working with the Atlanta Housing Authority. Her aha moment came when meeting Tom Cousins, a mega-developer and philanthropist with grand designs for repairing East Lake Meadows, a community dominated by public housing projects where the crime rate was 18 times the national average and the employment (not unemployment) rate was 12%.
Working through the East Lake Foundation, Cousins targeted 175 acres in East Lake Meadows to build mixed-use housing. But his approach differed from that of other such projects in several regards.
First, East Lake found people to start a charter school. The Atlanta Board of Education was too broken to help, said Naughton, but the George legislature had just passed a charter school bill. Second, upon the advice of local residents, mixed-use housing was limited to people who worked. Third, the foundation developed key partnerships: with the YMCA to build a community facility, with Publix to build the first grocery store to serve the area in 40 years, and with two Atlanta banks to put branches in the neighborhood. Fourth, the foundation morphed into a “community quarterback” pushing a vision for community wellness and cradle-to-college education.
Each element of the plan was important but the charter school proved decisive, Naughton said. In its first year, the school was the worst-performing school in Atlanta. But it improved year after year, and 20 years later now stands as one of the top schools in the city. “Our kids can compete against anybody, against the wealthiest kids in the city,” she says. “We’re serving more low-income kids than any other school in the community.”
The result is transformational, she said. “Now East Lake is an education destination. People want to live there. It’s a great neighborhood for kids.” Middle-class families are moving into the neighborhood. Indeed, the lure of the charter schools is driving revitalization of neighborhoods beyond the original project.
Naughton is not a big fan of the department of Housing and Urban Development. “HUD confuses funding streams with programs,” she says. Programs take more than money. They require local leadership to put it to good use. She believes that the backing of an entity like the East Lake Foundation, with a high-powered and well-connected board, is a critical ingredient to success.
The East Lake redevelopment model has proven so successful that it is being replicated by the Bayou Foundation in New Orleans, and Naughton runs her own organization, Purpose Built Communities, to work with dozens of other initiatives around the country.
Bacon’s bottom line: Even allowing for the fact that Naughton is a cheerleader for the East Lake project, the concept sounds enviably successful — certainly successful enough that it’s worth a try in Virginia. Could the concept work here? The biggest obstacle likely would be the hostility of Virginia’s educational establishment to charter schools. On the other hand, here in the Richmond area at least, there are dozens of entities — Tricycle Gardens and its community farms, Bon Secours and its community hospital, and the vibrant Communities in Schools program — that would make natural partners.
I am amazed by the number of Richmonders who are actively engaged in trying to ameliorate the concentrated, inter-generational poverty in the city’s East End. There is much good will, and there are many great anecdotal stories, but I don’t see much traction in actually vanquishing poverty. Perhaps the missing elements are a purpose-driven real estate developer and community foundation dedicated to building a physical community and institutions to support it.
(This first ran in Bacon’s Rebellion on June 22, 2016)
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