Author Archives: Christine Chmura
Is US Economy Headed Toward a Depression? No, but a Recession is Likely
With so much uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 crisis, it is difficult to predict how the economy will fair for the remainder of the year. Many economists have been looking for a drop in real gross domestic product — the monetary … Continue reading
Political polls, like economic forecasts, can vary greatly depending on assumptions
Predicting economic growth and the outcome of elections have something in common: Both rely on assumptions. We economists make assumptions about when and by how much the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates or whether the coronavirus will lead to … Continue reading
Forecast for 2020 Looks Better Than it Did a Year Ago
What a difference a year makes. Last year at this time there was talk of recession, in part, because the stock market and yield curve were signaling warning signs. At the end of 2018, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had … Continue reading