Virginia stopped being a red state a decade or two ago.
Despite a Democratic sweep of all statewide elections (U.S. senators, governor,
lieutenant governor, and attorney general), one could maintain the pretense that Virginia is a “purple” state thanks to a Republican-dominated General Assembly. But it has been long apparent that Republican control will end with the 2019 elections. As further evidence for that proposition, as if any were needed, now comes a new Wason Center for Public Policy poll.
Key finding: Democrats lead Republicans by 13% on the generic ballot test among likely voters 40% to 36%. Ds have a strong advantage over Rs in voter enthusiasm: 62% to 49%. More Dems than Republicans say they “definitely” will vote” than either Republicans or Independents. As a general rule, polls are decreasingly trustworthy, but the Democratic advantage is so overwhelming that it cannot all be attributed to implicit bias in the polling methodology.
Come January Democrats will control all statewide offices and the General Assembly. Virginia, we now can say, is the southernmost Northern state — Maryland with a larger rural hinterland.
Meanwhile, Governor Ralph Northam’s popularity has rebounded to a 51% positive rating, up from 40% in April shortly after his blackface scandal which, after comparably opprobrious revelations on the part of Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax and Attorney General Mark Herring, Virginia’s media suddenly decided was no longer an issue. Unlike Sen. George Allen’s “macaca” scandal, which the media flogged until muscle was stripped from bone, the media has focused on Northam’s efforts to “make amends” by adopting a “progressive” agenda on race.
A number of random observations.
- Republicans have failed to change with the times. Their choice of issues is geared mainly to Virginia’s rural/small town base, even as the state has steadily urbanized. The GOP is unlikely to change until it is stripped of power and is forced to confront the new realities.
- Democrats are moving to the left. Change will be incremental — we won’t become Maryland or New Jersey overnight — but we’ll move in that direction. All sorts of issues that didn’t used to be issues now will be. Expect serious debates over matters such as the right-to-work law and statewide minimum wage.
- The business lobby, once a powerful influence in state politics, will accommodate itself to the new political realities. Democrats, already the party of Big Money in this electoral cycle, will become the party of Even Bigger Money in the future.
- Not to be under-estimated is the role of local media in framing issues and setting the agenda. Paralleling national trends, mainstream media in Virginia are aligned ideologically with the Democratic Party. While the media may continue to play governmental watchdog when the stakes are low, it will always side with Democrats when the stakes are high.
- Virginia will see more spending and higher taxes. Constituencies and interest groups that benefit from bigger government will prosper. Voters who are not beneficiaries of government will become even more alienated.
As a citizen of Virginia, I am distressed by the direction I see the state heading. But as a rebel by temperament, I’m probably better suited to becoming part of the opposition. Let the resistance begin!
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It’s mostly Northern Va that is filled with Liberals, government workers. Well educated but dumb when it comes to common sense. If you care about our Republic you better get out and vote or we end up in a socialist state filled with illegals and high taxes.
Jim – while I appreciate your optimism about “incremental change” and “debates” around right to work, (gun laws!), I have to disagree. The Democrats that are about to seize power are out to punish us and “make up for past years of wrong” by quickly implementing laws that would make Mao, Chavez, and Marx proud.
Just look at the last 3-5 legislative sessions (and the special session this summer). They are going to bring gun control that is the most restrictive in the US (ban of ALL semi-autos, mags, suppressors, etc), removal of “gendered language” from all legislation, removal of “man and woman” from the definition of marriage, $9 min wage, removal of right to work, removal of voter ID, vote by mail, same-day voter registration, extension of Obama’s fair housing garbage (rural localities REQUIRED to approve section 8/low income housing developments or be sued by the state, climate change garbage, abortion everywhere, on demand, etc, etc.
One of the NoVA D’s put up a video up from a campaign event where he was claiming “the history of wrongs in Virginia will be corrected in a few days in January, 2020!”
Folks, they are coming with the long knives out with hate and revenge, ready to punish us for not agreeing with their deranged ideology. Many of them are non-Virginians, northeast transplants, some even from communist countries (Vietnam) – this is truly an invasion of politicians to go with the invasion of NoVA (thanks GWB for the Patriot Act!).
Our beloved Virginia is about to look like California, or quite possibly worse. Prepare accordingly!!!
I propose working with your localities to become sanctuary counties/cities from what is coming (particularly the gun laws). The left has set the precedent with sanctuary states/cities that we are no longer a nation of laws, a post-Constitutional entity that simply does not follow laws they don’t agree with. Let’s use that same logic against them.
Most importantly, VOTE and bring as many like minded people as you can with you!
This sounds like a nightmare.
Your first bullet point is the most telling. The Republican Party, state and national has failed to adapt to the changing political world and address issues of concern to current voters. Sadly, there is no effective conservative voice in either party. Issues like federalism, limited government, economic development, job creation and fiscal responsibility are more often addressed by Democrats than Republicans, leaving conservatives in search of a political home.